NBA playoffs preview: X-factor, key matchup and more Sixers-Raptors storylines

The 76ers kept telling us everything would be fine.

Even when they underachieved, had defensive lapses and shooting woes, the Sixers reminded us they were a work in progress. They said they would be ready for the playoffs.

Well, we’re about to find out.

The fourth-seeded Sixers (51-31) are set to face the fifth-seeded Toronto Raptors in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals. Game 1 of the best-of-seven series is 6 p.m. Saturday at the Wells Fargo Center.

Based on the teams’ regular-season meetings, the Sixers might be fortunate to advance out of the first round.

The Raptors (48-34) won three of four meetings. The Sixers’ lone victory over Toronto came at Scotiabank Arena on Dec. 28. In the 114-109 win, with Joel Embiid producing 36 points and 11 rebounds and Tobias Harris finishing with 19 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists.

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Back then, the Raptors were heavily impacted by health and safety protocols, as Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, and Scottie Barnes were among six players unavailable.

“I don’t ever get caught into individual records during the regular season,” Sixers coach Doc Rivers said. “I never have. So many things are in play. You could be on a five-game road trip. You could be back-to-back. A guy could just be coming off of injury. There’s so many different reasons why some of those things happen.

“Think about Miami against us. Every time we played Miami [this season], we were coming off a back-to-back. Every game. You just can’t [use that as a barometer]. So we’ll know after Game 1 where we stand and … what we need to do.”

Rivers has a point.

But now that everything is equal, the Sixers must do a better job of competing physically and coming away with energy stats against the Raptors during this series. In Toronto’s three victories over the Sixers, it grabbed 48 offensive boards and scored 66 second-chance points.

“The rebounding as a whole has been our weak spot in those games,” said Harris. “We know that if we’re able to rebound and get out and run and be at the pace we want to be at, then we will be successful. It’s gonna be a tough series, but we’re up for the challenge.”

Rebounding isn’t the Sixers’ lone concern. This will also be a tough matchup for the Sixers because of Raptors coach Nick Nurse, who’s the X-factor of the series.

The playoffs are all about matchups. And if the Sixers learned anything about facing him before, Nurse is always on his feet and switching things up and thinking outside of the box.

Given how these teams matchup, the games are going to be close. If that’s the case, the way the Sixers adjust to Nurse’s tactics will be huge.

The Sixers are more top heavy with Tyrese Maxey, James Harden, Embiid, and Harris while the Raptors are balanced. With that, Nurse will have more options than Rivers.

The only thing the Sixers can consistently count on is Embiid producing 40-point, 10-rebound gems. They have to hope that Maxey continues to trend in the right direction and Harris and Harden have big series.

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But the Raptors head into this series with a pretty good idea of how the Sixers are going to play. They spent this week of practice going over contingencies for what to do against Embiid in certain situations. They worked on ways to defend Harden after switches and who will come off the bench to guard him.

And Nurse will be sure to mix in some unconventional defensive methods. In tight games, that, along with little things, will be the difference.

So the Sixers must combat what he’s doing.

Meanwhile, the key matchup is going to be Harris and whoever he defends — Pascal Siakam or Anunoby. Harris has to hold his own and deny his opponent from scoring with ease.

The expectation is that Raptors All-Star point guard VanVleet will have a good series. On paper, it also appears that Harris will have his hands full guarding Siakam, which could lead to Embiid guarding him instead. But assuming Harris defends Anunoby, the Sixers will need him to neutralize the Raptors small forward.

Anunoby averaged a career-best 17.1 points and shot 36.3% on three-pointers in 48 games played this season. He scored 20 or more points in 19 of those games.

The fifth-year veteran is a new factor for the Sixers to account for because he missed three of the four regular-season meetings.

Siakam is tougher to guard.

The post player averaged 22.8 points. His career-high 30 double-doubles this season are the most by a Raptor since Hall of Famer Chris Bosh (49) in the 2009-10 season.

Toronto went 12-2 when he scored 30 or more points. And Siakam is the first player in franchise history to average 22-plus points, eight-plus rebounds (8.5) and five-plus assists (5.3) for an entire season.

So Harris must put in the work on offense and defense regardless of who he matches up against. That would be very beneficial for the Sixers.

The Sixers will also have fewer options off the bench in Games 3 and 4 because Matisse Thybulle, their best perimeter defender, remains unvaccinated. As of Jan. 15, unvaccinated players are not allowed to enter Canada.

That could have an impact on the series for a Sixers that already will have few options off the bench in those games.

As a result, one of their key reserve perimeter players — Shake Milton or Furkan Korkmaz — will have to step up and play out of character. They will be called on to provide stiff defense.

Right now, Thybulle has to adjust to a bench role in the games he’s eligible to play. Danny Green started in Thybulle’s place at Toronto on April 7 when he was not allowed to travel to Canada because of his vaccination status. Green remained in the starting lineup in the final two games to finish out the season.

» READ MORE: Tobias Harris adjusted well to the James Harden trade. Now the Sixers need him to be even better. | Mike Sielski

“It’s kind of been the tale of the season,” said Thybulle, who started 50 of 66 appearances. “I’ve gone in and out of the starting lineup, depending on Danny’s health in the beginning of the season. The second half of the season, I spent a good chunk in the starting lineup.

“But it’s nothing that Danny and I are not used to. It’s just being adaptable and being able to adjust to whatever it is that’s needed from us.”

Thybulle doesn’t expect it to be tough for him to remain locked in when he’s unable to be with his teammates on the road. He’s going to watch and do everything he needs to do to be prepared when he’s available.

“Being mentally engaged is more than half the battle,” he said. “So even when you are playing, it’s hard to stay locked in consistently. But knowing that I’m not going to be playing is … I know what to expect. So I can just anticipate it and meet it when we are going into it.”

It will also be interesting to see how the Sixers utilize reserve center Paul Reed to fill Thybulle’s minutes.

This is definitely a tough series for the Sixers with all things considered.

The Sixers remain optimistic, yet there’s too many unanswered questions. They’ll also have to play at their best to win this series.

As a result, don’t be surprised if the Raptors win in six games.