Who will win the World Cup? Will the United States advance from their group? Our Inquirer writers predict.

The soccer writers on the Inquirer staff are prognosticating and sharing what they see in the crystal ball view of the 2022 World Cup tournament.

Argentina's Lionel Messi (left) and Brazil's Neymar (right) lead two of the top teams at the World Cup.Read moreBruna Prado / AP

by Andrea Canales, Jonathan Tannenwald, and Gustav Elvin

Updated Nov. 17, 2022, 3:52 p.m. ET

Published Nov. 17, 2022, 2:55 p.m. ET

The World Cup countdown clock is down to single digits and fans have arranged their work schedules and/or surreptitious viewing options to not miss any important games, so all that’s left is for our Inquirer soccer writers to ponder the big questions.

Two big ones to answer: Who wins it all, and will the U.S. get out of its group?

Jonathan Tannenwald: I will start by doing something un-journalistic: admitting I have a rooting interest. I want Argentina to win, because I want to see Lionel Messi win a World Cup. He’s the best player I’ve ever watched.

Granted, almost the entire planet wants Messi to win. Maybe the only people who don’t are diehard Cristiano Ronaldo fans and diehard Brazil fans. So anyone in the media who says they want Argentina to lift the trophy isn’t really putting their neck out there.

Nor is it a far-fetched dream. Argentina’s squad is stacked, and it’s built to help Messi flourish. Ángel Di María has still got it at age 34, Lautaro Martínez is a great finisher, and Julián Álvarez is a 22-year-old phenom. They’ve got the right amount of steel behind them in midfielders Rodrigo De Paul and Leandro Paredes, and defenders Cristian Romero and Lisandro Martínez.

Alas, the albiceleste have broken the world’s hearts too often over the years for me to pick them. Instead, I’m going with their biggest rivals: Brazil. It’s been 20 years since the most decorated team in men’s World Cup history won its fifth star, and it’s time for the drought to end.

Brazil has an absurd amount of attacking talent. Neymar is the big star, but I think electric newcomers Vinícius Jr. and Rodrygo are poised to rocket to stardom. They’re already well on their way at club level with Real Madrid. And those three could keep players as good as Gabriel Jesus and Raphinha off the field.

But it’s the players behind them who will really make the difference: Casemiro, Fabinho, Bruno Guimarães, Marquinhos, and Éder Militão. There are piano players and piano carriers, as the old saying goes, and Brazil’s got enough of both to play a symphony. Get the harmony right, and it might be time for a new edition of the best soccer TV commercial ever.

As for the U.S., I don’t think they’re getting out of a group that statistically is the most difficult at this World Cup. They certainly can, but they’ve got to beat a Wales team that is better than a lot of people think — and will likely play a five-back line that will frustrate a hyped-up U.S. attack.

Then comes an England team that is as talented and mentally strong as any I can remember. I just think they’re too good to give up a loss there, but I can see a tie if things really go right for the U.S.

Which means it comes down to Iran. Do you really want that game to be a must-win? I don’t. I’d feel better if it was first and Wales was last. Instead, buckle up for what could be the second-most politically charged game in World Cup history, behind when these teams meet in 1998. I don’t think that benefits the Americans, and I think it could be the end of their run in Qatar.

Andrea Canales: I’m picking Argentina to win it all, because it seems to me that Messi finally has a supporting cast that can do stuff instead of mostly watching him try to shoulder all the work — it’s more the Beatles and less the Beach Boys, basically.

Also, Messi has finally come full circle with the team. I think even leaving Barcelona has helped him, because he’s not locked into habits with certain players who aren’t available to him on the Argentina squad. He’s got such great vision as a facilitator, and with PSG, he’s had to adjust his skills to a whole new cast of teammates and a system. He always seemed a bit frustrated with Argentina, like he was forcing things that happened so easily and naturally with Barcelona. He’s had to figure out things with PSG, and it’s in playing with Argentina that he now acts like he’s coming home, that his national team is finally where he’s comfortable.

A huge part of that has to be the expectations that were lifted from Messi when Argentina won the Copa América and he finally had a major trophy in hand. Argentina did that to Brazil in Brazil, so to me, that serves as the metaphor for this present World Cup. Sure, Brazil has the talent, they’re an incredibly gifted team, but right now, Messi is rolling as the sage of a squad with a bunch of young guys who are also fantastically skilled and ready to grind in any game on behalf of the national hero who has become like a big brother to them.

However, aside from these two countries, I like Spain as the unsung spoiler, because it seems no one doubts their quality, but doesn’t pick them to win it all. Why not? Gavi is fantastic, and this tournament could really be his star turn in the spotlight.

On the U.S. question, with a team of young players excited to return to the tournament, I hope they go into the group games feeling both like there is no ceiling to what they are capable of and yet also that this is all gravy. It’s a juxtaposition, but that attitude is what will allow them to be resilient and reactive to both the opportunities the game offers and to move past the inexplicable injustices that always seem to come in some form or another.

I’m optimistic about the team’s chances, not because I don’t respect Wales, Iran, and England, all very difficult teams, but because it seemed during qualifying that the American players were building a strong esprit de corps that managed to lift each other up and block out a lot of the outside noise. Players such as Weston McKennie, Antonee “Jedi” Robinson, Sergiño Dest, and Yunus Musah weren’t just having fun playing the game they loved, they were enjoying doing it together. They all seemed to perform better as a result.

However, I worry about Christian Pulisic’s getting glum and overthinking things. Gio Reyna plays at times like the game is his escape, where he’s finally relaxed and able to vent constructively by destroying defenders. If a bounce or two goes the right way early, the U.S. men could catch fire.

Conversely, if the bounce is cruel, they could flame out badly and all the sound and fury they’ve managed to previously shut out will bury them. So yeah, advancement isn’t won or lost on the first game, but with a team as unseasoned as this U.S. one is, a cold water wakeup call defeat by Wales could psychologically finish its tournament.

Gus Elvin: Who will win the World Cup? It just feels like it is Brazil’s time, as manager Tite is blessed with an absolute embarrassment of riches from an attacking standpoint. Led by an in-form and more mature Neymar, Brazil has the best roster in the 32-nation field, and its players fully understand that only winning the World Cup will suffice.

With tricky wide players like Vinícius, Rodrygo, and Antony, and Gabriel Jesus and Richarlison as options in the middle, Brazil no longer needs to rely on Neymar to do it on his own. Casemiro is a rock in midfield while the ageless Thiago Silva (38) and the outstanding Marquinhos combine to form one of the tournament’s strongest center-back partnerships. Even on the rare occasion when things break down, Brazil has two A-plus goalkeepers in Alisson and Ederson to bail it out. For all those reasons, Brazil is the team to beat in Qatar.

Sure, Brazil has had great teams stumble before in knockout stages at the World Cup, but I think this squad is better and has learned from the defeats in 2014 and 2018. Neymar knows this is his best chance at World Cup glory and after previous failures with the Seleção, he finally delivers a World Cup title and join the likes of Pele, Romário, Ronaldo, and Ronaldinho.

While I really like Belgium, led by Kevin De Bruyne, to make one more run with its Golden Generation — as long as Romelu Lukaku’s fitness holds up — and I believe France, Portugal, and Argentina will all have a part to play, Brazil gets it done and ends its 20-year drought without a World Cup.

Will U.S. make it out of the group? Hell yeah — although I am slightly biased considering I have a U.S. Soccer tattoo. Bias aside, I think this young and hungry team does just enough to get out of a group that contains England, Wales, and Iran.

With England likely to win the group and Iran an outsider to advance, especially with all the turmoil within its camp, this comes down to the U.S. and Wales for second. While I don’t see too much separation between the two sides, I will lean with the U.S., which has more players playing at the top levels around the world. While striker and center back are problems that worry me with the U.S. squad, I love the energy and steel of the midfield with Tyler Adams, Yunus Musah, and Weston McKennie. Farther forward, Christian Pulisic and Gio Reyna are not in the best form at club level, but both possess the potential to be gamebreakers and will be eager to strut their stuff on the World Cup stage for the first time.

While Wales is now more than just the Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey show, it still leans on the two veteran stars heavily. Even at 33, Bale is capable of the spectacular, but having not played a ton in the run-up to the World Cup with LAFC, and his long and well-documented injury history, it is hard to imagine him doing a Euro 2016 again. Young legs is the biggest difference between these two teams, as I think the U.S. has the overall team speed to give Wales’ backline some trouble. Look for the U.S. to grind out a result against a proud Wales in the opener, keep it close against England, and finally, to beat Iran to finish group play. It could come down to tiebreakers and permutations but I think the U.S. ultimately goes through, barely.