Union meet LAFC in the battle to be first-time champions: MLS Cup predictions from the soccer staff

It’s here, finally, and as the line goes about the usual suspects, the Union and LAFC have been tipped all season long for this final clash. It doesn’t matter how often the top two teams during the season meeting in the final fails to happen, it’s still a scenario many expect.

What The Inquirer’s soccer writers expect from the final itself is revealed below.

Saturday, 4 p.m. (Fox 29, Univision 65, TUDN)

Gustav Elvin: With all the recent conversation about Major League Soccer potentially reformatting its playoff structure for what seems like the 1,000th time, the league will be thrilled with an MLS Cup matchup that pits the Western Conference’s top seed, LAFC, against the Eastern Conference’s top seed, the Union. There is no debate that these were far and away the best two teams both in terms of points and the eye test all year long and whoever wins will be a worthy champion.

While Cup finals tend to be cagey and a bit anticlimactic, don’t expect that type of affair on Saturday when these two sides meet. The Union and LAFC rank first and second respectively in goals scored, with each team featuring explosive talents: Dániel Gazdag and Julián Carranza headline the Union’s attack; Cristian “Chicho” Arango and Carlos Vela for LAFC. I’d expect both teams to score on Saturday, with LAFC particularly keen to play its trademark free-flowing game.

In what should be an entertaining and closely contested final, I give LAFC a slight edge in front of its passionate home supporters at Banc of California Stadium. The Union were a great team at home during the regular season (12-0-5) but only a good team on the road (7-5-5), and the fact that they lost the tiebreaker on total wins (21-19) is enough for me to lean with LAFC here.

That said, if there is an X factor, it is MLS Goalkeeper of the Year Andre Blake, who has shown throughout his career he is more than capable of stealing a game.

Look for Vela to score a goal and add an assist and defenders Giorgio Chiellini, who has played in Champions League and European Championship finals, and Jesús Murillo to have enough defensive nous to help marshal LAFC to its first MLS Cup triumph. LAFC was tighter defensively this past weekend against Austin, and they’ll need to produce a similar performance to shut down a Union attack that, as we saw in a whirlwind second half on Sunday against NYCFC, can score goals in bunches.

Prediction: LAFC 2, Union, 1

» READ MORE: Union manager Jim Curtin played in the last MLS Cup final between No. 1 seeds, 19 years ago

Jonathan Tannenwald: I sat outside of Grand Central Market in downtown Los Angeles on Wednesday, taking in the sunshine and a lunch of pupusas and horchata, thinking about how glitzy it would be if Gareth Bale scores a title-winning goal. Or how much Univision would exult if Vela does it.

But Gus is right: Arango is the guy. Jim Curtin knows it, all of the Union’s defenders know it, and I suspect everyone watching is going to find it out on Saturday.

Between that and Denis Bouanga turning his shooting boots on in the playoffs, I suspect the Union’s magic will run out Saturday. LAFC doesn’t have to play Bale or Chiellini to win the game, and frankly, the less Bale plays the better his team’s odds are.

I’d also keep an eye on José Cifuentes, an underrated central midfielder; and Ilie Sánchez, a defensive midfielder who a lot of people think should have made the Best XI.

The Union will give everything they’ve got, and if this was a regular-season game, I might pick a fourth straight tie between these teams. But I can’t this time.

Prediction: LAFC 2, Union 1.

» READ MORE: Jim Curtin and his longest-tenured players celebrate the Union’s first trip to MLS Cup

Andrea Canales: The cutlery in the press box at LAFC’s sweet downtown stadium is gold. Not real gold, obviously, but even the metallicized plastic look means LAFC is keeping to a theme of glitz at all times, whereas the Union’s playoff theme has been — our blood runs gold.

Well, unlike flatware, no one can see that unless someone cuts you open. That’s why, for me, an enduring image of the Union-LAFC rivalry is the first game defensive midfielder José Martínez ever played for the Union in 2020, when he took a cleat to the face and kept playing and making tackles even as blood ran from the wound.

OK, maybe I’m carrying the metaphor a little far, but there’s no doubt that the Union have cultivated their image of Philly-tough, blue-collar, hardworking players, even as they’ve risen in the league ranks as consistent performers, with more members on the MLS season squad than any team.

Historically, the Union have played LAFC even in recent years, hard-fought draws in which the scoring flows in both directions. Even if one is a scrappy goal and the opponent scores from beautiful, excellent buildup, each one counts the same in the end.

Vela is still a top player in the league, but he’s lost a step from his prime. What I haven’t seen from the Union this playoff season much yet is their excellent youth-developed contingent stepping up to contribute the way it has so often in the past. I’m guessing Alejandro Bedoya’s injury doesn’t allow him to play in the final and Jack McGlynn will seize the moment. So my call is a draw in regulation, and extra time, penalty kicks to settle the championship, with Blake making a heroic save and McGlynn a crucial conversion. Union win!

Prediction: 3-3 draw, 4-3 Union on penalties.

» READ MORE: An expert witness talks about Jim Curtin, soccer coach and Philly guy

Kerith Gabriel: The other day, I watched a video on TikTok. It was a podcast by this guy called the Sheffield Shuffler saying that teams of destiny are not necessarily always the best team. In fact, his nearly two-minute monologue was in reference to the Phillies being a team of destiny, but in many of his takes, his points about strokes of luck and timing happening to be just right acutely match up with how I feel about this Union collective.

Are the Union the better team? I don’t know. They proved why they were the top seed in the East, but this match features two No. 1 seeds for the first time since Jim Curtin was a player in Chicago in 2003.

What I do know is that the Union’s well-timed decision-making in the front office, their propensity to score at will on the field — all mixed with a stroke of luck — have them poised to hoist a trophy. I go back to the decision to rid themselves of productive players last season to bring in guys like Gazdag and Carranza.

I look at this club proving it might have been in this situation last year if not for 11 players catching COVID-19 a week before the Eastern Conference final against the same New York club it beat soundly, 3-1, last Sunday.

Defensively, the Union are a juggernaut with Blake in goal, the combination of Jakob Glesnes and Jack Elliott on the back line, and the work rate and distribution of Martinez spreading the pitch and fueling an attack. Anyone on this team can score, and given the fact that the Union dispatched teams by football-sized final scores this season, it’s evident they can bag goals in bunches.

I could get into the personnel that makes LAFC formidable, but its record speaks for itself. The team is truly No. 1 team in the West this season on merit.

But something about this Union team this feels different. That was beyond apparent watching them defeat NYCFC. In my opinion, covering (and full disclosure, once working for) and now covering this team again over the last 13 years, this is their year.

Too many things have gone right for it to all of a sudden go completely wrong inside Banc of California Stadium.

Prediction: Union 2, LAFC 1 in extra time.

» READ MORE: Four Union players (but not Jack Elliott) make Major League Soccer’s team of the season