How the Union can play in next year’s Club World Cup

The Concacaf Champions Cup resumes Tuesday night, and even though the Union are out of this year’s tournament, they’ll still be watching closely. If results go their way, the Union could end up qualifying for next year’s FIFA Club World Cup.

It sounds crazy to think that the Union could play against Manchester City, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, or Juventus in a real competition — and in the U.S. too, since that’s where next year’s tournament will take place.

But it’s true, and here’s how.

Four teams qualify from Concacaf for the 32-team tournament field. Three of the spots are taken by the last three winners of the continental club title: Mexico’s Monterrey (2021), the Seattle Sounders (2022), and Mexico’s León (2023).

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Monterrey is still alive in this year’s competition — very much alive, in fact. Los Rayados, led by star American striker Brandon Vazquez, will play a much-anticipated quarterfinal matchup with Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami on Wednesday.

So what will happen if Monterrey wins it all this year, since a team can’t qualify twice?

That’s why FIFA created a ranking system for clubs that have played in their respective continental competitions. Right now, León and Monterrey are Nos. 1 and 2 in Concacaf — and the Union are No. 3.

Yes, really. It’s OK to stop for a moment and take a breath.

Because the Union reached the Concacaf semifinals in 2021 and 2023 and the round of 32 this year, they have the third-highest point total in the rankings. And just two clubs can overtake them this year, Mexico’s Club América (No. 5) and Tigres UANL (No. 6), because they’re both in the quarterfinals. The only other team in earshot, Mexico’s Cruz Azul (No. 4), didn’t qualify for this year’s Concacaf tournament.

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Rankings points are awarded for results in the tournament: three for a win and one for a draw (like how regular-season points are awarded), and three more for reaching each next round. The Union have 41 points, América has 34, and Tigres has 30.

Tigres would pass the Union by reaching the final, but Monterrey is on the same side of the bracket. So it really doesn’t matter for the Union whether Tigres wins it all or not. The bigger deal is a potential Tigres-Monterrey semifinal, a huge edition of one of Mexico’s biggest rivalries. If Tigres wins that, the Union’s hopes are done.

América is on the other side of the bracket, and will pass the Union by reaching the final. A win and a tie in each series before then would do it. But even if Las Aguílas reach the final and lose to Monterrey, a technicality in FIFA’s rules would give the Union the Club World Cup berth anyway.

Scroll all the way down the rankings page, and there it is: Only two clubs from any one country can qualify unless one country produces more than two title winners. In that case, the title winners all get in.

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Just to be sure, we asked a FIFA spokesperson to confirm: If Monterrey wins this year’s title, do the Union get in the Club World Cup?

Yes, the spokesperson said, they do.

The Union have been aware of the possibility for a while. Manager Jim Curtin acknowledged it last month, as Monterrey knocked out FC Cincinnati a few days after the Union’s blowout loss at Pachuca.

“Now that they’re past Cincinnati, I jokingly texted Pat [Noonan] and Chris [Albright] a couple weeks back,” Curtin said of his ex-colleagues among Cincinnati’s brass, “that I bought a Monterrey jersey and I’m a Monterrey fan.”

Venues for the Club World Cup aren’t known yet. It would be even more of a scene if Philadelphia gets games, because someone would surely think about letting the Union play at home. But there seemingly hasn’t been much conversation about it in soccer circles. The only hint there’s been so far is a report by the Athletic in January that the tournament will be played “primarily” on the East Coast.

We’ll have to wait for more details, but it’s at least nice to know about the possibilities.

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Twenty-one of the 32 tournament berths have been clinched so far. Here are the teams that are in.

Concacaf: León (Mexico), Monterrey (Mexico), Seattle Sounders (United States)

Europe: Bayern Munich (Germany), Benfica (Portugal), Borussia Dortmund (Germany), Chelsea (England), Inter Milan (Italy), Juventus (Italy), Manchester City (England), Paris Saint-Germain (France), FC Porto (Portugal), Real Madrid (Spain)

South America: Flamengo (Brazil), Fluminense (Brazil), Palmeiras (Brazil)

Africa: Al Ahly (Egypt), Wydad AC (Morocco)

Asia: Al Hilal (Saudi Arabia), Urawa Reds (Japan)

Oceania: Auckland City (New Zealand)

7 p.m.: Columbus Crew (U.S.) vs. Tigres UANL (Mexico), FS1 and Univision’s ViX streaming platform

9 p.m.: New England Revolution (U.S.) vs. Club América (Mexico), FS1 and TUDN

8 p.m.: Inter Miami (U.S.) vs. Monterrey (Mexico), FS1 and TUDN

10 p.m.: Herediano (Costa Rica) vs. Pachuca (Mexico), FS1 and ViX

8:15 p.m.: Tigres UANL vs. Columbus Crew, FS1 and Spanish TBD

10:30 p.m.: Club América vs. New England Revolution, FS1 and Spanish TBD

8:15 p.m.: Pachuca vs. Herediano, FS1 and Spanish TBD

10:30 p.m.: Monterrey vs. Inter Miami, FS1 and Spanish TBD