Why the Union are Philadelphia’s best chance for a championship right now

There’s a heat wave coming to Philadelphia this week, and whether you flee down the Shore or stay inside with the air-conditioning, you might find yourself with some time to daydream.

You can imagine Jalen Hurts throwing touchdown passes to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, or Haason Reddick and Fletcher Cox sacking Dak Prescott. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber slugging the Phillies to the playoffs. Daryl Morey signing whomever James Harden took a pay cut to help the Sixers land. And the Flyers — well, OK, there’s daydreaming and there’s really a stretch.

Now say you’re going to bet on which Philly team will be the next to win a championship. Which of those would you pick when it comes to putting cold, hard cash on the line?

Or would you pick the other one?

Right now, it looks like the Union are the best hope for the first local pro sports title since the Eagles won the Super Bowl. If that sounds crazy to you, know that the other teams’ issues are part of the reasons why. (Are you totally convinced by the Phillies’ bullpen?)

But there are some actual reasons why the Union could — could, to be clear — win it all.

» READ MORE: A.J. Brown is already defending Jalen Hurts from Philly media

It’s mid-July and the Union are in first place in the Eastern Conference, with a 10-2-9 record and 39 points. Only New York City FC (11-4-5, 38) has a better points-per-game average (1.9 to 1.86); New York has played one fewer game.

Keep in mind that MLS’s first standings tiebreaker is total wins, not the usual soccer standard of goal difference. That one’s second, and goals scored is third. So the Union have an incentive to keep winning, after having to settle for a league-high nine ties so far this year.

And there could be some good luck coming soon. NYCFC star striker Valentín Castellanos is reportedly moving to Spain’s Girona, a La Liga team owned by the same corporate parent (City Football Group). Castellanos is expected to play his last game for the Pigeons on Saturday at home against Inter Miami.

» READ MORE: The Union’s young prospects starred in Olympics qualifying. Here's how they'll fit in for the rest of the season.

For years, the Union had either a top striker and no great midfield playmaker behind him, or a top playmaker and no great striker in front of him. Now the team has both.

The top scorers this year are playmaker Dániel Gazdag (nine goals) and strikers Julián Carranza (seven) and Mikael Uhre (six). They’re also some of the Union’s most expensive players.

Gazdag earns a $586,250 salary and commanded a $1.8 million transfer fee, the third-highest in team history.

Carranza earns $900,000, and has been so good that the Union took the $500,000 purchase option on his loan from Inter Miami months early.

Uhre earns just over $1.5 million, and his $2.5 million transfer fee is the team record. After dealing with a hamstring injury early in the year, he now has six goals in his last nine Union games.

» READ MORE: The Union’s top attacking trio is finally playing at a top level

The Union’s most impressive stat of all this year is their total goals conceded: just 15 in 21 games. Two have come in the last two contests, and they were unstoppable wonder-strikes.

It’s an exemplary mark, led by goalkeeper Andre Blake, centerbacks Jack Elliott and Jakob Glesnes, and outside backs Kai Wagner, Olivier Mbaizo, and Nathan Harriel.

Midfield anchor José Andrés Martínez has also been crucial, with crunching tackles and interceptions all over the field. Referees have certainly paid attention, giving him seven yellow cards and one red this year. If you think soccer isn’t macho, watch Martínez.

» READ MORE: Olivier Mbaizo could become the first active Union player to play at a World Cup

How many assists Wagner has this year depends on how you define them. MLS says he has 10, because it counts secondary assists the way hockey does. The rest of the world would say he only has five.

Either way, Wagner is undoubtedly one of the league’s best left backs — a position where top talent is rare. The league’s assist standings have Wagner tied for No. 2, by far the top defender on the list. It’s different if you use the global standard, but just three defenders have five assists, and none has more.

Wagner has caught the eye of some big-time teams in Europe over the years, especially in his native Germany. He has said often that he’d like to go back there sometime, and preferably sometime soon.

If one of those teams writes a big enough check before Europe’s summer transfer window (their equivalent of the trade deadline) closes on Sept. 1, the Union might have to take it. We’ll see if they can keep him for the rest of this year.

» READ MORE: The Union’s Andre Blake and Kai Wagner are on this year’s MLS All-Star team

If you don’t believe the media, do you believe the sportsbooks?

BetMGM, whose locations include the Borgata in Atlantic City, has the 76ers at +1200 to win the next NBA Finals, the Eagles at +2500 to win the Super Bowl, the Phillies at +4000 to win the World Series, and the Flyers at +6,600 to win the Stanley Cup.

The Union are +625 to win MLS Cup.

» READ MORE: Jim Curtin is happy to have Julián Carranza for good, and for not much money

Because this is Philadelphia — and because the Union have only once made it as far as the conference final — fans are always looking over their shoulders for things to go bad. There are lots of ways that it could, starting with Wagner leaving.

The biggest caveat is that two teams in the Western Conference, Austin FC and star-studded Los Angeles FC, have better records than the Union and would host the championship game.

LAFC has been in the headlines a lot lately because of Gareth Bale, Giorgio Chiellini, and Carlos Vela, but the team is also stacked with talent you might not have heard of: striker Cristian Arango, winger Brian Rodríguez, and midfielders Kellyn Acosta (a U.S. national team reserve) and José Cifuentes.

(Also on that roster are two former Union goalkeepers: Cherry Hill’s Tomas Romero, who grew up in the club’s academy, and Northeast Philadelphia’s John McCarthy.)

» READ MORE: Five years ago, Tomas Romero made history with the Union's reserve team

Austin has scored the most goals of any team in MLS, 42, led by Sebastián Driussi, Maxi Urruti, and Diego Fagúndez.

There’s one other reason the Union might not win Philly’s next title. If the Phillies win the World Series, they could do so before MLS’s title game on Nov. 5.

It would take making the playoffs in the first place, ending the National League’s longest active postseason drought at 10 years. Then the Phils would have to win a wild-card series played entirely on the road; an NL Division Series likely against the Dodgers; a NLCS against the Mets, Braves, or whoever else makes it; and after all that, the World Series. But unless the Fall Classic goes seven games, it looks like it would be done before MLS crowns its next champion.

» READ MORE: The Union's Quinn Sullivan and Brandan Craig, lifelong friends from Northeast Philly, aim for the 2026 World Cup