The door isn’t shut on the Union’s MLS playoff chances, but there’s a lot that needs to go right

Just about half an hour before Jim Curtin sat down for a news conference on Friday afternoon, Major League Soccer sent one of its usual emails laying out this weekend’s playoff-clinching and elimination scenarios.

For the first time in many years, the Union found themselves among the latter.

That’s where they are after Wednesday’s 2-1 loss at Orlando, and the 12 other losses, 10 ties, and 9 wins that preceded it. If they lose Saturday at the reigning champion Columbus Crew, eighth-place Montreal wins or ties at seventh-place Charlotte, and ninth-place Toronto wins or ties hosting first-place Miami, the Union will fail to reach MLS’s postseason for the first time since 2017.

The odds of that trifecta hitting aren’t great, but they aren’t nothing. Charlotte (12-11-9, 45 points) is on a three-game unbeaten streak and playing at home, while Montreal (10-12-10, 40 points) is on a five-game unbeaten run, starting with a win over Charlotte at home last month.

Toronto beating Miami would be a bigger upset since the Reds (11-18-4, 37 points) have won just one of their last six regular-season games. Inter, meanwhile, won a 3-2 thriller at Columbus on Wednesday to clinch the Supporters’ Shield trophy for this year’s best regular-season record with two games to go (20-4-8, 68 points).

Could that lead Miami to rotate its squad and perhaps not start superstars Lionel Messi and Luis Suárez? Perhaps, but even if it does, the Herons have proven they’re a great team without Messi on the field. In the 20 games he’s played this year across all competitions, the Herons are 11-2-7, for an average of 2.0 points per game; and in the 20 games he’s missed, missed this year, they’re 12-6-2, for an average of 1.9.

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Columbus might also rotate some, but has a good reason to not: it’s battling state rival FC Cincinnati, currently a point behind the Crew, for second place — and thus the right to host a semifinal against the other half of the “Hell is Real” derby. That battle will pass through Subaru Park on the regular season’s final day when Cincinnati visits the Union.

(Yes, that really is the name of the rivalry. It comes from a billboard with those words on the interstate that runs between the cities.)

“They’ve had a ton of games in recent weeks, but regardless of whether they rotate or make some changes, they still have a very deep squad, a very dangerous squad, and one that we need to be prepared for to get a result,” Curtin said.

He knows that from recent experience. In August, the Crew beat the Union twice in eight days, 3-1 in Columbus in the Leagues Cup semifinals and 1-0 at Subaru Park in the regular season, with different lineups in each.

If the Union can get a tie in Columbus, as they did last year, their playoff hopes will stay alive. A win would be even better, but the Union haven’t won there since 2016 — a streak of 10 games.

“This has to be, roll out a group that is as fresh as possible, that can fight for everything, and find a way to get a result,” Curtin said. “Whether it’s the most beautiful 4-0 win or the ugliest 1-0, we get lucky on a penalty kick and steal three points in Columbus, I don’t care at this point, and I don’t think the players do, either. That’s kind of the way it is right now.”

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Should the Union win and a bunch of other results go their way, they could be in the playoffs before the regular-season finale.

“There’s a scenario where if we win and Toronto and D.C. lose, we’ll be in the playoffs before the Cincinnati game,” Curtin said Friday. That was partly correct, but it didn’t tell the whole story.

If the Union win at Columbus, clinching before the Cincinnati game would require these four results: a Toronto loss, a D.C. loss at New England and an Atlanta loss at the New York Red Bulls on Saturday, and a New England loss at Columbus next Saturday. (That game is the only one during the October FIFA window, rescheduled from May because of the Crew’s run to the Concacaf Champions Cup final).

MLS’s scenarios email — which understandably gets pretty long at this time of year — didn’t have that one listed, but a league spokesperson confirmed it.

And what if all of this tastes sour at the moment? That’s a question to answer during the offseason. It could be here pretty soon at this rate, even if the Union makes the playoffs in the end.

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The telltale signs that goalkeeper Andre Blake’s groin is not fully healthy returned on Wednesday when he handed over taking goal kicks to teammates.

The Union have had to live with it at times over the years, and they’ll be praying Blake survives not just Saturday, but Jamaica’s upcoming Concacaf Nations League fixtures Thursday at Nicaragua and Oct. 14 at home vs. Honduras.

“Not 100%, but getting stronger for sure,” Curtin said. “We’re tentative to risk him aggravating that. It doesn’t help with our setup, and it leads to chaos and the back line can’t be controlled as good when a centerback’s taking that kick.”

Blake will be assessed before Saturday’s kickoff.

“We’ll just try to get a plan in place that is smart with Andre,” Curtin said. “We’ll see how he feels, exactly how much he can kick, and how much you trust things right now. Overall, it is something that is a little bit of a hindrance for sure, but we’ll take that risk for what Andre brings in all other aspects of the game.”

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