A prediction for Union-D.C. United: It’s good to be predictable — and to be unpredictable

Too many teams are figuring out how to stymie the Union's traditional 4-4-2 formation. So it's good that manager Jim Curtin is trying something else.

Last year, Julián Carranza and the Union out-scored D.C. United by a whopping 13-0 margin over two games.Read moreChris Szagola / AP

by Jonathan Tannenwald

Published May 17, 2023, 5:00 a.m. ET

A few weeks ago, in the middle of the Union-Los Angeles FC Champions League semifinal series, LAFC manager Steve Cherundolo called the Union “predictable.”

He insisted he meant it as “100% a compliment,” a term of coachspeak describing “a clear way of playing, and they’re quite good at it, and they feel comfortable in that.”

But a lot of other observers have called the Union the same thing this year behind the scenes, without meaning it positively. Many more teams than LAFC know how to stymie Jim Curtin’s preferred 4-4-2 diamond formation now.

We might soon find out if D.C. United is one of them. The Union demolished United by a combined 13-0 score over two games last season, opening the biggest gap between MLS’s original dynasty and one of the present day’s elites.

This year under manager Wayne Rooney, the Black and Red are improved. Granted, they have risen from 14th and last place in the East last year to ninth this year, but it’s still improvement. One of the key reasons has been striker Christian Benteke, a veteran of English Premier League clubs and Belgium’s national team, with five goals in 11 games so far.

Alas for Rooney, he’s got a quite long injury list. Big names on it include forward Taxi Fountas and Pedro Santos and defenders Steve Birnbaum and Andy Najar. Benteke is also questionable with an ankle issue, though it seems he might be available.

The Union meanwhile, are set to welcome José Andrés Martínez and Mikael Uhre back from injuries. That makes it easier to predict a win for a team that is now up to fifth place in the Eastern Conference, closer to where it was predicted to be all year.

A key reason for that is Union manager Jim Curtin’s decision to do something unpredictable in his last game: play a 3-5-2 formation instead of a 4-4-2. While the Union conceded first, they came from behind for a morale-boosting 2-1 win, and the formation worked well.

Consistency is a virtue in Major League Soccer, but not to the point of going stale. Being predictable may have been a compliment a month ago, but right now being unpredictable is better praise.

Prediction: Union 2, D.C. 1.