MLS Cup playoff predictions: Our picks for the conference finals

Ever since Union fans filed out of Subaru Park brokenhearted at this same point in the season last year, many have wished for the exact scenario that will take place Sunday night. An Eastern Conference rematch final of the Union against New York City FC. The right to play for the MLS Cup goes to the winner. Back then, NYCFC won the game and ultimately, the MLS Cup.

Well, the wish is granted for Union fans and players dreaming of revenge. In the Western Conference final, Los Angeles FC takes on Austin FC. If the Union prevail and LAFC fail to win, the MLS Cup final will be at Subaru Park.

Here are the predictions for the two games from The Inquirer’s soccer writers.

Sunday, 8 p.m. (FS1, Fox Deportes)

Jonathan Tannenwald: The prime-time stars above Subaru Park should be aligned for the Union to win this game and reach their first MLS Cup final. The crowd will be electric, the players will be ramped up, and New York’s high-line defense should give the Union’s front line more breathing room than Cincinnati did.

The last of those items is the most important, especially if veteran New York centerback Maxime Chanot’s injury is bad enough to keep him sidelined. Bet on City manager Nick Cushing saying as little as possible about that, just as Jim Curtin will keep coy about Alejandro Bedoya’s status.

» READ MORE: Injured Union captain Alejandro Bedoya says he’s ‘doing better’ as he aims to return Sunday

Still, I have a bad feeling about this game. New York’s 3-1 win at Montreal was a master class in how to win on the road: score early, sit back, then score again with an exquisite counterattacking goal in first-half stoppage time. Youngsters Santi Rodríguez and especially Gabriel Pereira are blossoming into stars this fall, and they have great veterans next to them in Maxi Moralez and Héber.

So I’ll say the same thing I said before Montreal-New York. The Union can win this game, but if New York scores first, I’m not sure the home team will be able to come from behind.

And if there was ever a time to be wrong …

Prediction: New York 2, Union 1.

» READ MORE: Want Union-NYCFC hype? Sean Johnson won’t give it to you, and that’s just how he likes it.

Andrea Canales: Say it ain’t so, JT! You’re really picking NYCFC in the Eastern Conference final? At Subaru Park? After the Union have lain in wait all season long to get vengeance on the squad that took advantage of their COVID-19 protocol-weakened state?

Well, I’m not. Yeah, I thought the Union had a good chance to come in rusty and lose to FC Cincinnati, but I’m not picking against them vs. NYCFC. No rust there, just revenge.

Did you see the regular-season matchup against NYCFC when the Union’s intensity was dialed up to 11 and the Pigeons looked like they were just flying peacefully along, only to smack into one of those mirrored skyscrapers?

There’s not a Union player who missed that game last season, or who had to play in it, who hasn’t seethed about it since. Even the players who weren’t on the team at that time, like Julián Carranza, told me their teammates and coaches made it clear why beating NYCFC is so significant. Yes, NYCFC has good players, but the Union, as Jim Curtin has said repeatedly, are a team. If the best team wins, the Union win.

Prediction: Union 3, NYCFC 1

» READ MORE: Why Julián Carranza’s role in Union-NYCFC could be both big and underrated

Sunday, 3 p.m. (6abc, ESPN+)

Tannenwald: Union fans will be begging Austin to win so that the championship game could be at Subaru Park. The TV networks will barely be able to contain themselves at the thought of a L.A. vs. New York or Philly final, though Austin’s fan base always turns up big in the ratings. An Austin-NYCFC final would also be quite a sight as a TV show.

We know what Austin can do at home in these playoffs: win two games over worse-seeded teams by small margins. We don’t know what Sebastián Driussi and company can do on the road against a team with superior talent. I suspect they will lose.

And if the Union do beat NYCFC, it would only make sense if the first MLS Cup between No. 1 seeds since 2003 — a game Jim Curtin played in with the Chicago Fire — sends the Union all the way across the country.

Prediction: Los Angeles 2, Austin 0

Canales: Austin FC is way too happy to be in the conference final. Act like it’s only a step along the way, people, especially when going up against a team whose entire existence is supposed to be justified by winning titles. LAFC was built for that singular purpose. They’re looking ahead. Austin seems to already be looking backward in awe and admiration over how far it has come.

In the West, the home team has won every time, so philosophical outlooks aside, that favors LAFC. The team of stars against the singular talent of Driussi should be a fun game.

Prediction: Los Angeles 2, Austin FC 0

» READ MORE: Leon Flach becomes the Union’s latest unlikely playoff hero with his winning goal