USMNT’s World Cup qualifier at Canada should be better than other games, whether or not it’s a win

In recent weeks, a useful theory has made its way around American soccer circles.

If the U.S. men qualify for this year’s World Cup, as they are on the cusp of doing, those games might be easier than the qualifying games they’re in the midst of currently.

That may seem counterintuitive to some people. Why would games against the great soccer powers of Europe, South America, Africa and Asia be easier than matchups with familiar regional rivals ranked far lower in FIFA’s global standings?

The answer is found less in the quality of the players involved, and more in the tactical style they play. U.S. opponents in World Cup qualifying often pack it in defensively, daring American players to break them down.

Thursday’s U.S. win over El Salvador, by the minimum 1-0 margin, was an example of that. El Salvador manager Hugo Pérez, a former U.S. player and youth national team coach, knew the Americans aimed to spread the ball wide to star wingers Christian Pulisic (whom he once coached), Tim Weah, and Brenden Aaronson.

So it shouldn’t be surprising that La Selecta played two of its best games of qualifying so far against the Americans, as frustrating as they were for U.S. fans.

» READ MORE: U.S. men’s soccer team edges El Salvador, 1-0, with Antonee Robinson goal

Sunday’s game at Canada (3 p.m., Paramount+, Telemundo 62 and Universo) is likely to be be the opposite situation: a track meet instead of a slog. Canada loves to turn up the energy, led by prolific striker Jonathan David. He has 18 goals in 24 career games for Canada, including the clincher in a 2-0 win at Honduras on Thursday, and 16 goals in 30 games this season for reigning French champion Lille.

David is flanked by fellow striker Cyle Larin (Beşiktaş, Turkey) and winger Tajon Buchanan (Club Brugge, Belgium), both well-known in American circles from past stints in MLS.

Along with superstar Alphonso Davies (Bayern Munich, Germany), currently sidelined by myocarditis after COVID-19, they have fired Canada to the top of the Concacaf qualifying standings (5-0-4, 19 points). The Canucks are on the cusp of their first men’s World Cup berth since 1986.

Just as Mexico’s skilled roster made El Tri’s visit to Cincinnati in November an open game (and a 2-0 U.S. win), if Canada opens this game up it should give the Americans chances.

That doesn’t mean second-place U.S. (5-1-3, 18 points) is favored. A home win or a tie is more likely.

» READ MORE: TV and streaming guide for Sunday's World Cup qualifiers across Concacaf

The U.S. will be without Weah, as he was denied entry to Canada by the government because of of his COVID-19 vaccination status. Weah has had one vaccine shot, then contracted the virus while awaiting his second shot. French law considers him fully vaccinated because of that, but Canadian law does not. U.S. manager Gregg Berhalter seemed to indicate that an exemption was discussed, but not granted in the end.

“We learned of this a couple days ago, and this was a nuanced technicality that we were hoping was going to get through, and unfortunately it didn’t,” Berhalter said, adding that Weah instead went to Minneapolis for the U.S. game vs. Honduras on Wednesday in nearby St. Paul.

Left unsaid was the fact that Weah might not have played much in this game anyway after a big shift vs. El Salvador.

Paul Arriola is likely start at right wing, teaming up with right back Sergiño Dest to try to exploit Davies’ absence. Sam Adekugbe, who started in Davies’ place at Honduras, is a good player but not the same two-way threat.

» READ MORE: USMNT faces four opponents in World Cup qualifying: El Salvador, Canada, Honduras, and Mother Nature

Berhalter is friendly with Canada manager John Herdman, who’s well-known to many U.S. fans from his years coaching Canada’s women’s team.

“It’s a relationship filled with mutual respect,” Berhalter said. “We’ve been able to bounce some ideas and some notes off each other through qualifying. We’re pulling for the Canadian team to qualify, there’s no secret about that, and it’s only tomorrow that I want them to lose.”

Herdman’s ebullient coaching style failed to help Canada’s women’s team break what became a 21-year winless streak against its southern neighbor. Last summer’s Olympic semifinal came two managers later. But a year after Herdman moved to the men’s team in 2018, he oversaw the snapping of that squad’s 39-year drought against the U.S.

In the last matchup between the nations, Canada held the U.S. to a 1-1 tie in Nashville in the Americans’ first home game of qualifying.

There should be a festive atmosphere at 23,000-seat Tim Hortons Field in Hamilton, Ont., on the western edge of Lake Ontario between Toronto and Buffalo, even though pandemic restrictions limit the stands to half capacity. The stadium’s artificial surface and the forecast of 22-degree temperatures at kickoff are also home-field advantages.

“It’s one of them fields where at four o’clock the ice sort of set in and it ended up rock-hard,” said Herdman, an England native who has now lived in Canada for over a decade. “We like to play on a nice, tight field as we did against Mexico [in Edmonton in November].”

The stakes aren’t what they could be, since both teams are comfortably high in the standings. But it’s the first time in 25 years that Canada is hosting the U.S. in World Cup qualifying, and Herdman gladly stoked the fire.

“It feels like a real derby match,” he said, using the British term for a soccer rivalry. “I still think the U.S. [is] a few years ahead and how they’ve been able to build their talent pool, and deepen their rosters with players in Europe across every position. But Canada is coming ... and [the Americans] are coming across the border now and looking to try and take the top spot from us.”