U.S. World Cup schedule analysis: Why the opening game vs. Wales is nearly a must-win

The games only get tougher after the Americans' group stage opener: England on Black Friday and Iran a few days later. Here's what to know about the three teams the U.S. will face.

Tyler Adams (right) and the U.S. men's soccer team played a friendly agaisnt Wales in November 2020. Two years later, they'll meet in a game that counts.Read moreKirsty Wigglesworth / AP

by Jonathan Tannenwald

Published Nov. 19, 2022, 10:00 a.m. ET

As the U.S. men’s soccer team prepares to take the field in a World Cup for the first time in eight years, here’s a look at the challenge that each of their group stage opponents will pose.

Wales

Monday, 2 p.m. (Fox29, Telemundo 62, Peacock)

Union fans know all too well that Wales’ biggest star denied Philadelphia its first major soccer championship since 1973. But all kinds of soccer fans know about Gareth Bale. No matter that the 33-year-old barely played in Los Angeles FC’s playoff run until his late tying goal in the title game, because of a leg injury. The former Real Madrid and Tottenham Hotspur star still is a threat on set pieces and crosses, whether taking them or receiving them.

Wales is about much more than just Bale, though. Dan James is a major presence on the wing and a Fulham teammate of U.S. defenders Tim Ream and Antonee Robinson. He also knows Brenden Aaronson and Tyler Adams a little bit, as he joined Fulham on loan from Leeds United on Sept. 1.

Aaron Ramsey is a veteran midfielder with experience at Arsenal and Juventus. While the 31-year-old has been injury-prone, he’ll be fired up for Wales’ first men’s World Cup appearance since 1958. The defense is stout, led by Tottenham centerback Ben Davies and Nottingham Forest right back Neco Williams and goalkeeper Wayne Hennessey.

This game is just about a must-win for the U.S. if it wants to get out of the group. Historical precedent is one reason why. In the six previous 32-team men’s World Cups, 84% of teams that won their opening game advanced. The number drops to 59% for teams that tied, and just 11% for teams that lost.

Then there’s the matter of the remaining schedule. The U.S. will not want to have to beat England, and the Iran game will be fraught enough before potentially being win-or-go-home.

This U.S. squad has the talent to beat Wales, but the top players have played together so little that no one knows how good they’ll be. And if the game is close late, Bale will be set up to do to the national team what he did to the nation’s birthplace at the start of the month.

England

Nov. 25, 2 p.m. (Fox29, Telemundo 62, Peacock)

The Three Lions have their best shot at winning a World Cup since England’s sole title in 1966. There’s vibrant youth in Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden, and Bukayo Saka; a heap of veteran savvy in Jordan Henderson, Harry Kane, Raheem Sterling, and Kieran Trippier; and serious depth at nearly every position.

It’s an odd quirk of history that England has never beaten the U.S. at a men’s World Cup. Philadelphia legend Walter Bahr helped spark the most famous result of all, the Americans’ 1-0 upset win in 1950; and Clint Dempsey’s out-of-nowhere goal earned a 1-1 tie in 2010.

(Nor has England beaten the U.S. at a women’s World Cup, but that’s less surprising. The Americans won 3-0 in the 2007 group stage, and 2-1 in an epic 2019 semifinal.)

Will the streak end this year? What’s likely to be the biggest TV audience for a soccer game in U.S. history will tune in on Black Friday to find out.

England should win, and a tie would be an upset. But no European country gets American players and fans alike more fired up as opposition than England. Along with the Premier League’s media dominance, the nation’s citizen coaches have come here for decades to preach their superiority in the sport. (This reporter is one of many former kids who had English coaches at summer camp.)

Aaronson, Christian Pulisic, and all the other U.S. players who play in England — or have aspired to in their lives — will want to put on a show. If they beat Wales, it’ll be easier for the rest of us to sit back and enjoy. If they don’t, nerves will be through the roof.

Iran

Nov. 29, 2 p.m. (Fox29, Telemundo 62, Peacock)

If you’re the kind of reader who wants to keep politics out of sports, this is not the game for you. (Frankly, this is not the World Cup for you, but that’s another story.)

Fans (and security experts) with long memories know the 1998 U.S.-Iran contest was called the most politically charged game in World Cup history. An Iraqi group protesting Iran’s government bought thousands of tickets, and mere weeks before the tournament an al-Qaeda plot to attack the U.S. team at its Paris hotel was foiled. (There also was a plot against England’s team.)

The present controversies are highlighted by massive protests in Iran over the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, which happened while she was in the custody of Iran’s “morality police.” Amini was arrested for wearing her headscarf too loosely. While there are conflicting reports about the exact cause of her death, the protests clearly have been in her favor — and there have been tens of thousands of demonstrators.

Many players from Iran’s national soccer team have spoken out against the police and Iran’s government and worn black jackets over their jerseys during the national anthem. One of the biggest stars, Bayer Leverkusen’s Sardar Azmoun, wrote on Instagram: “The ultimate [punishment] is to be kicked out of the national team, which is a small price to pay for even a single strand of Iranian women’s hair.”

He later deleted the post and apologized, claiming he had upset teammates — reportedly including one of Iran’s other stars, FC Porto’s Mehdi Taremi.

A new chapter came earlier this month, when a news conference to announce the World Cup squad was postponed and then canceled. Reports claimed Iran’s government was pressuring the national team to drop Azmoun. He made the team in the end, with manager Carlos Queiroz announcing it through a statement.

It’s impossible to know what this will mean on the field. The U.S. and Iranian national team staffs surely will try for a gesture of positive unity, as they did in 1998. Once the whistle goes, both teams will want to win. But what if both already are out of contention? And if the U.S. needs a result to advance, how much will nerves be a factor?

There’s a lot to do before then — and a lot of incentive to make sure the game matters as little as possible.