How will the U.S. women’s soccer team do at the Olympics? Here’s our prediction.

This summer’s Olympic women’s soccer tournament has the most stacked field of any major tournament in the sport’s history.

There are just 12 teams in the competition. They include four of the top five teams in FIFA’s global rankings, and seven of the top 10 — even though reigning European champion and World Cup runner-up England and perennial power Sweden aren’t among them.

That’s not the only reason why predictions are tough to make here. With three groups, two of the three third-place finishers advance to the quarterfinals, along with the top two in each quartet.

Which is the hardest group? Take your pick of Australia-Germany-United States-Zambia, or Brazil-Japan-Spain-Nigeria. But then look at the third group, and it’s tricky, too: Canada-Colombia-France-New Zealand.

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The U.S. can win its group, but that is no guarantee it will. Germany has a deep squad, though it just lost terrific midfielder Lena Oberdorf to a brutal ACL injury this month. Australia is another familiar foe, with past and present NWSL players and a lot of youth — but no superstar Sam Kerr, who’s been out with an ACL injury since January.

Then there’s Zambia, a team that has everyone on high alert — and will face the U.S. on Thursday’s opening day (3 p.m., USA Network, Universo, Peacock).

Strikers Barbra Banda and Racheal Kundananji are fast, skilled finishers, and have shown it with the NWSL’s Orlando Pride and Bay FC. Banda is the league’s top scorer this year with 12 goals in 12 games.

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Now throw another wrench into the gears: Spain’s history of tripping up in games it shouldn’t. Even with last year’s World Cup title in hand, La Roja lost 2-1 at the Czech Republic on July 12, and had to climb out of a late 2-0 hole to beat Denmark 3-2 at home on July 4.

Could that happen again this year? We’ll find out in the very first game of the tournament, when Spain meets Japan on Thursday (11 a.m., USA Network, Telemundo 62). It’s a rematch of a group game last year where Japan won in a 4-0 rout despite having just 23% of the possession.

If the U.S. wins its group and Spain finishes second, they would meet in the quarterfinals — a nightmare scenario for both teams. I’m willing to pick both teams to win their groups, as easily wrong as I could be.

Spain will enter the knockout rounds knowing no reigning World Cup champion has ever won the following Olympic gold. Many great ones have tried, including the U.S. four times, but all have failed.

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My quarterfinal projections are France (1A) vs. Brazil (3C), a rematch of a 2019 World Cup knockout game; Spain (1C) vs. Canada (3A); United States (1B) vs. Japan (2C), two teams that know each other well; and Colombia (2A) vs. Germany (2B), a rematch of one of last year’s World Cup epics.

If you read that closely, you saw I have Colombia topping Canada. That’s the closest from chalk I’m willing to stray, but Colombia has exceptional attacking talent in Linda Caicedo and Mayra Ramírez. They’ll upset someone, and I’ll pick Canada, as good as it is, to be the victim.

That will make for semifinals of France vs. Spain and United States vs. … yes, Colombia. It might be because I think that highly of Caicedo, or because Oberdorf is out, but I’m willing to gamble.

The U.S. would take the matchup in a heartbeat, in part because it would mean being in the semifinals and in part because the Americans would be on a real roll at that point.

Even if Germany beats Colombia, a knockout path of Japan then either of those would be much better than facing Spain at any point. And if the U.S. and Spain stay on opposite sides of the bracket, the Americans will have a fair shot to reach the final.

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A France-Spain matchup would be a classic. The teams met in the UEFA Nations League final in February, and Spain won 2-0 in Seville. This time, it would be on France’s turf in Marseille, and revenge would be on the table.

How about a France-U. S. gold medal game? And even better, in the same stadium where they met in an epic 2019 World Cup quarterfinal, the Parc des Princes in Paris?

U.S. fans would take it, the U.S. team gladly would too, and the home team would relish it.

The World Cup winners’ curse would live, Emma Hayes’ first tournament with the U.S. would end in silver, and French legends Wendie Renard, Eugénie Le Sommer, and Amandine Henry would finally have their first major trophy after a lifetime of near-misses.

Gold: France

Silver: United States

Bronze: Spain

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