Who will win the women’s World Cup? The Inquirer’s soccer writers make their predictions

The wait is over and the anticipation is palpable. The 2023 women’s World Cup is finally here, and the story lines are many. The biggest one is: Who ultimately will be crowned world champion on Aug. 20? So let’s get to it. Here’s who our soccer experts are predicting to emerge victorious from Down Under:

The winner: Germany

There are a lot of reasons to believe the United States will make a very deep run in this tournament. The first 23, of course, are the players on the team: all that glittering young electricity seasoned with key veterans like Crystal Dunn, Alex Morgan, and Julie Ertz.

The 24th reason requires stepping back a bit, but once you do, it becomes clear quickly. The knockout-round path sets up remarkably well for the two-time reigning champions. If chalk holds with the group stage winners, almost every other major women’s soccer power will be on the other side of the bracket: England, France, Germany, Brazil, cohost Australia, and Canada. The U.S. team’s side would only have Spain, Japan, and Sweden among the sport’s elite.

Of course, chalk might not hold, and that’s what we’re all excited to see. I’m especially watching Group C, where Barbra Banda’s Zambia will try to topple Spain and Japan. Group B, meanwhile, is the purported Group of Death: Australia, Canada, the Republic of Ireland, and Nigeria.

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But for as much parity as there is in the sport, the group draw overall unfolded in a way that likely won’t trouble the big teams too much. So the U.S. will be quite satisfied knowing there could be Germany-France and England-Canada matchups on the far side of the round of 16.

I have the U.S. winning Group E, then facing Group G runner-up Italy in the round of 16. Then it will be Norway or Japan in the quarterfinals, with either opponent a fascinating matchup. Norway should win Group A, led by superstar attackers Ada Hegerberg and Caroline Graham Hansen, and I have Japan finishing second to Spain in Group C — but maybe I shouldn’t.

Either way, I’ll take Norway’s firepower to win that round of 16 game and set up a renewal of one of women’s soccer’s all-time grudge matches. Norway dethroned the U.S. at the 1995 World Cup and the 2000 Olympics, and here the teams would meet in a major tournament for the first time since 2007. (Oddly, they haven’t met at all since 2017.)

I have the U.S. winning that game, then facing Spain in the semis for its biggest test yet. Spain is loaded with talent, but not fully loaded because of a player boycott over ill treatment by Spain’s federation. Close watchers might recall that 15 big-time Roja players boycotted a home game vs. the United States in October. Some of them have come back, most notably two-time world player of the year-winning forward Alexia Putellas, but not all of them.

So I’ll say the U.S. edges it in one of those games that proves the new generation has the same mental fortitude of its ancestors. Then, amazingly, the U.S. would be in its fourth straight World Cup final — a feat no men’s or women’s team has ever achieved.

Germany will await the Americans, and will beat them. It will be quite a feat, not least because I have Germany beating France, England, and Australia along the way. But this Frauen squad is amazingly talented, and like the U.S. has the right mix of youth and experience. Lena Oberdorf, Jule Brand, and Nicole Anyomi are set for star turns (though Oberdorf already is one in Europe), while Alexandra Popp, Lina Magull, and Sara Däbritz bring the veteran savvy.

It’s been 20 years since the last time Germany knocked the U.S. off the top perch in women’s soccer. That team didn’t care about the hype around the U.S. back then, and this one doesn’t now. It will be a great champion.

» READ MORE: Women’s World Cup TV schedule, live streaming, kickoff times on Fox and Telemundo

The winner: England

I have a lot of faith in this young U.S. team, but I also have great belief in the growth of the women’s game worldwide. There are various solid contenders for the World Cup title. The caveat is that I’ve been saying that for a while now, and the USWNT has rolled to World Cup win after World Cup win and now is on the brink of a historic three-peat.

I don’t think the USWNT gets enough credit for how the team has continuously upped the level of its game even as other women’s teams around the world have raised theirs. Too often, casual observers who tune in during World Cup time might be inclined to think, “Ah, of course the United States is going to win again; they’re the best.” Hopefully, there will be some who watch the amazing players from other countries and realize what a feat it is to come out on top in an international tournament that gets stronger and deeper every cycle.

» READ MORE: Ten players to watch at the 2023 women’s World Cup

Even with all my admiration for the Americans, though, I think England takes it. The Lionesses certainly have no fear of the U.S. players, especially as they’ve faced them and beaten them in a 2022 friendly in Wembley Stadium. Lauren Hemp and Georgia Stanway were the heroes that day, but England is stacked with capable players — any of which are ready to step up.

Soccer is a game designed to be somewhat capricious. Megan Rapinoe is an incredible player, but she, along with Alex Morgan, knows personally what it’s like to lose a World Cup in one of the most painful ways possible, by losing a penalty shootout (although neither kicked in the shootout), which the U.S. did in the 2011 final. A win can often come down to the slimmest of margins, or a single mistake. Brazil, Germany, England, Spain, Norway — any of the five and even some others like Australia and Canada, are capable, but I see the Lionesses still riding their current wave of team spirit and self-belief to the crown.

The winner: United States

I’ll start by saying this is the most vulnerable I think the U.S. has ever looked entering a World Cup. For that reason, and the growth of other nations in recent cycles like Spain, England, and France, in addition to longtime powers like Germany, Sweden, Canada, and Brazil, I planned on picking somebody else to lift the 2023 trophy.

But I have changed course for two key reasons: the USWNT’s path to the final and key injuries to several of its top challengers. As Jon mentioned above, the U.S. should have a very navigable route through the bracket if things play out as expected. And top challengers Germany (Linda Dallmann, Giulia Gwinn), France (Marie-Antoinette Katoto, Delphine Cascarino, and Amandine Henry), and England (Beth Mead, Leah Williamson, and Fran Kirby) have been severely damaged by injuries to key players. The United States has a laundry list of injuries, too — Catarina Macario, Mallory Swanson, Becky Sauerbrunn, Christen Press — but I think the U.S. has more depth and young talent to compensate for such losses.

» READ MORE: Chickens, meditation and soccer analysis: Carli Lloyd tackles the World Cup in Fox’s TV booth

While there could be a twist or two to the bracket, the U.S. despite its youth will almost certainly breeze into the quarterfinals. Group E opponent Vietnam is just happy to be here, while an improving Portugal doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with the two-time defending champ. The Netherlands would have posed a bigger threat but is without its top player in all-world striker Vivianne Miedema because of an ACL injury. A group-stage sweep likely would lead to a very manageable round-of-16 clash with Italy or Argentina — neither of whom is as decorated in the women’s game as it is in the men’s. Although if Sweden were to slip up and finish second in Group G, that would spice things up dramatically.

Norway or Japan would be a step up in competition in the round of 16, but neither is quite at the peak of its powers. The semifinals should bewhere the tournament really starts for the Americans with a likely date with Sweden or Spain. Spain, despite possessing stars like Putellas and Aitana Bonmatí, has too much going on off the field for me to fully trust La Roja, so I could see Sweden squeezing through a fascinating potential quarterfinal matchup.

Sweden, led by forwards Kosovare Asllani and Stina Blackstenius, is my dark horse to win the tournament and also has a track record of having the United States’ number in this type of knockout games. But I will stick with the Americans given Sweden has to go through Spain to even reach this stage. The U.S. also will be hell-bent on avenging that humiliating 3-0 loss to the Swedes at the Tokyo Olympics two summers ago.

On the other side of the bracket, I anticipate Germany — despite its struggles in recent tune-up games — will be firing on all cylinders by the time the games count. And given England’s significant losses — its captain Williamson and one of its top players in Mead — I think Germany ekes past the Three Lionesses this time in a rematch of the 2022 European Championship final.

A Germany-U.S. final would certainly deliver on star power, fanfare, and history, and would pose the ultimate test for the young American cast led by Sophia Smith, Naomi Girma, and Trinity Rodman. Plus, as the tournament reaches the latter stages, the U.S. can still lean on the likes of Alex Morgan, Megan Rapinoe, and Crystal Dunn, three women who know a thing or two about winning big games. Print the fifth star and plan the ticker-tape parade, the U.S. makes history and three-peats.

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