Will the USWNT top Group E after Tuesday’s matches? Here’s what the odds say.
The USWNT would have clinched Group E with a win over the Netherlands. Now, they need to run it up vs. Portugal to top the group, and they could even be eliminated with a loss.
This probably wasn’t how the U.S. women’s soccer team envisioned its standing in Group E on the eve of the final day of group-stage matches.
Being on top of the group after two matches is surely no surprise, but likely needing to run up the score on Portugal to win the group, and even staring down the remote possibility of being eliminated? Where was that on the bingo card?
Let’s not make this sound too extreme, though.
The USWNT faces Portugal at 3 a.m. ET Tuesday in Auckland, New Zealand. They are big favorites to win the game. And, still, they are slight favorites to be atop the Group E standings when the final whistles sound inside Eden Park and over in Dunedin, where the Netherlands will likely be finishing off a victory over Vietnam.
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Here’s a look at Group E odds ahead of Tuesday’s final day of group matches.
Odds are courtesy of FanDuel, current at the time of publishing and subject to change.
World Cup odds: To win Group E
USA: -115
Netherlands: +100
Portugal: +10000 (100/1)
That the Netherlands is even money to win the group despite trailing the U.S. on goal differential by two says enough about where things stand.
The path for the U.S. is pretty clear: beat or draw Portugal and you’re through to the knockout stage. But to win the group, the USWNT needs to beat Portugal and have that margin of victory not be trumped by two or more goals by the Netherlands’ margin over Vietnam.
The Oranje are very likely to march to a convincing win over Vietnam Tuesday. A big win could make up the goal differential deficit and have the USWNT wishing it ran it up in the opener vs. Vietnam (they won, 3-0).
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The worst-case scenario for the U.S., of course, is losing to Portugal. None of the goal differential talk really matters if Portugal pulls off the improbable.
How improbable?
USA vs. Portugal odds
Three-way money line: USA -450; Portugal +1100; Draw +500
Total: 2.5 goals (Over -138; Under +100)
Tie no bet (get your stake back if it’s a draw): USA -2200; Portugal +900
Crazier things have happened, of course. But this one would rank pretty high up there on the list of stunners.
The U.S. is the two-time reigning champion, and entered the tournament as a big favorite to win Group E while also being the favorite to win the whole tournament.
“Obviously, if we would have won [the] last game, we would have clinched the group and been through already, but whatever,” Megan Rapinoe said.
“I mean, this is the tournament — this is what it means; this is the pressure of being the No. 1 team in a World Cup, but this is just the pressure in general of being at the World Cup.”
» READ MORE: Megan Rapinoe rallies the USWNT for its highest-pressure game in years