U.S.-Wales World Cup prediction: It’s time to see how good the USMNT actually is

A lot of observers believe this U.S. squad has yet to fulfill its true potential. But how good, actually, are the players?

Sergiño Dest (center) is one of many players with unfulfilled potential on the U.S. men's World Cup team.Read moreAshley Landis / AP

by Jonathan Tannenwald

Published Nov. 20, 2022, 7:33 p.m. ET

For all the individual talent on the U.S. men’s soccer team, two big questions overshadow the program’s first game on the world’s biggest stage in eight years.

First, how will they play together? We might be about to see the quintet of Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams, Yunus Musah and Gio Reyna on the field at the same time for the first time.

It’s remarkable to think that hasn’t happened yet, but it’s true – and it’s why a lot of observers believe this U.S. squad has yet to fulfill its true potential.

But that leads right into the other big question: how good, actually, are these players?

So many people want to believe they are seriously good, since they come from some of the world’s most prestigious clubs: Arsenal, Chelsea, Juventus, AC Milan and Borussia Dortmund.

The five players on those clubs, though – in order, Matt Turner, Pulisic, McKennie, Sergiño Dest and Reyna – aren’t first-choice in that world, with Pulisic the most glaring example.

Nor do the national team’s recent results inspire. They’ve beaten a team from another continent just once this year – Morocco in June – and looked punchless in two September shutouts.

As for the opponents, don’t be fooled by Wales’ lack of famous names beyond Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey. Or by the American betting odds, which have their country as a remarkably strong favorite: +135 to Wales’ +230 as of Sunday night, with a tie at +200. The Welsh squad has chemistry, defensive steel, and plenty of its own motivation for its first men’s World Cup apperance since 1958.

I’ve watched the U.S. players grow individually and collectively since the failure for the ages five years ago. This squad undoubtedly has more talent than any in the modern era, and manager Gregg Berhalter has repaired the chemistry that Jürgen Klinsmann shattered.

But consider this stat with all the others you’ll hear before Monday’s kickoff (2 p.m., Fox29, Telemundo 62 and Peacock). This country’s men’s national soccer team has played 33 games in World Cups since its debut in 1930, and it has won just eight. Only twice has it won more than once in one World Cup: that first edition, and 20 years ago.

I’ll believe the 2022 edition can win a game on a stage this big when I see it. And having not seen it yet, I’m not yet willing to believe.

Prediction: United States 1, Wales 1.