World Cup semifinal predictions: Will Messi’s magic run out against Croatia? Can Morocco keep making history?

Tuesday, 2 p.m. (Fox29, Telemundo 62, Peacock)

Jonathan Tannenwald: Croatia-Argentina is a mighty battle between my heart and my head.

My heart says Argentina, as it has all along. This team has the skill of Lionel Messi, Julián Álvarez, and Enzo Fernández, and a mighty amount of intangible fortitude to go with them. Albiceleste teams of even greater individual talent would have collapsed after that late Dutch equalizer.

My head says Croatia, because that team does not care what anyone thinks. Nor does it care how much defense it has to play. My head also says Luka Modrić has beaten Messi both times their national teams have played, including a 3-0 rout at the 2018 World Cup. And both my heart and my head know how often Modrić's Real Madrid has beaten Messi’s Barcelona or Paris Saint-Germain in big club games over the years.

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I got half of my quarterfinal predictions wrong. I’d be thrilled to get this half of my semifinal predictions wrong, too. Croatia 1, Argentina 1 in 120 minutes, and Croatia does it on penalties again.

This portion has been corrected. It originally said there has never been a repeat men’s World Cup final, but there has been: Argentina and the former West Germany in 1986 and 1990. The prediction still stands.

Andrea Canales: In the clash of Croatia and Argentina, either Argentina is the team of destiny this World Cup or Croatia’s efficiency is simply insurmountable.

On tired legs, this stage of the World Cup is as much about willpower as anything else. It’s a testament to the skill of Luka Modrić and Lionel Messi that they’re so effective in their third decade of the game. Croatia’s main advantage against Argentina is being the underdog. All the pressure is on Messi and his teammates to finally bring him that big prize that has thus far always eluded him and his best efforts. Croatia gets to play free and calm, with both the experience of having been there before in the last tournament and the confidence of having also exceeded expectations this World Cup.

Honestly, I’d rather be Croatia in this situation, but I’m still sticking with my tournament pick to win it all. Argentina 2, Croatia 1

Gustav Elvin: Argentina vs. Croatia — this was expected to be Argentina-Brazil, Messi vs. Neymar, and I am not going to lie, I’m slightly disappointed we won’t be treated to that South American rivalry on the sport’s biggest stage. But credit to Croatia, which despite aging legs has willed itself to a second consecutive semifinal behind grit, collective defending, and nerves of steel in pressure moments. Led by Luka Modrić, and standout goalkeeper Dominik Livaković (10 saves vs. Brazil), the Croatians have been unflappable, stifling Belgium to advance out of the group stage and then beating both Japan and Brazil on penalties while converting seven of their eight spot kicks. Croatia didn’t flinch even after going down in extra time to Brazil, a credit to the leadership and sense of belief in its dressing room.

Argentina meanwhile has been carried by Lionel Messi, the GOAT, who seems determined to single-handedly will La Albiceleste to World Cup glory and fill out his trophy case. I’d go as far as to argue that Argentina is a bang-average team if you remove its transcendent No. 10. For that reason, Croatia has more than a punching chance to win here and reach a second straight final. I expect it to be tight and physical but look for Argentina to squeak by and move within one game of banishing its ghosts of World Cups past. Ángel Di María, the other man from Rosario, has had a quiet tournament but he’s a big-game player, so look for the 34-year-old to pop up in a big spot as he did in the final of the 2021 Copa America. Messi and Co. advance to a second World Cup Final and he gets his chance to end his international career on top of the world. Argentina 1, Croatia 0

Kerith Gabriel: There isn’t a person on the planet who watches soccer who doesn’t want to see Lionel Messi lift the Jules Rimet trophy. He’s the best player of a generation and this would be the exclamation point on a remarkable career. In Argentina’s win over Netherlands, his vision was the creator of the first goal and his calm and collected penalty in extra time aided in securing a semifinal berth against Croatia.

However, this Croatia team is strong and has bullied its way into a semifinal with attack at all angles. Luka Modrić, at age 37, has shown why he was FIFA World Player of the Year a few years ago. But he’s not the only one. Ivan Perisic has been fantastic at being that second playmaker and his goal and a pair of assists has supported that. Kramaric has been fantastic in this World Cup, breaking up plays and getting his big body in the box. Argentina’s supporting cast in my opinion, isn’t quite on that level. Messi’s not necessarily driving the bus as it’s been a total team effort, but I don’t think it’s been as strong of a World Cup for Argentina as the strong display we’ve seen from the Croats.

So as much as I really want to see Messi in a World Cup final, sadly, I don’t see it. Croatia 2, Argentina 1

Wednesday, 2 p.m. (Fox29, Telemundo 62, Peacock)

Tannenwald: Morocco can do this. It’s not its fault that I don’t think it will.

The Atlas Lions beat Spain because Spain put just one shot on target. Yes, Morocco blocked five, but a team that completes 926 passes out of 1019 attempts in 120 minutes shouldn’t produce just 13 shots and 1.01 expected goals to Morocco’s 0.72.

Then again, this is Spain we’re talking about, so maybe that is the expectation — and the problem. I’ve seen some U.S. fans who want Luis Enrique to succeed Gregg Berhalter. If you think the current American squad doesn’t shoot enough, imagine Enrique coaching that group.

Portugal outshot Morocco 12-9. Yet for as close as Cristiano Ronaldo and company came to a late equalizer, Morocco out-xG’ed them in the game by 1.40 to 0.92. Stats only count for so much, but that’s a sizable margin. Even in the second half, Portugal’s xG advantage was just 0.64 to 0.60. I can’t imagine that happening here. France has too much talent, and has already lost to one of its former colonies in this World Cup. Fortunately, Didier Deschamps and company knew the group stage finale against Tunisia didn’t really matter. This game does, and the reigning champs won’t lose it. France 2, Morocco 1.

Canales: I’m proud that I picked both France and Morocco to get to this point.

Let’s face it, there have definitely been African teams in the past who have been capable of contending in the final four, but overcoming that hump to actually make it happen has been another hurdle. Morocco has leaped over that barrier and all its attendant issues to stand proudly as a semifinalist. However, France is humming along in prime form and I think this is where Morocco’s train reaches a stop. It’s been an amazing, historic ride, though. France 1, Morocco 0

Elvin: Morocco’s Cinderella run continued in the quarterfinals as the Atlas Lions stunned Portugal, 1-0, to become the first African nation to advance to a World Cup semifinal. The North African side has overcome three top 10 teams at this tournament in Belgium, Spain, and Portugal, and will run into its biggest test yet in reigning World Cup winner France. Add in the France-Morocco colonial history and the fact that six of Morocco’s players were either born or currently play their soccer in France, and you have some familiarity and a tasty semifinal matchup. Morocco has hung its hat on defense at this tournament, conceding just once in five games (via an own goal). Playing compact soccer and hoping to capitalize on a chance or two on the counter from the likes of Hakim Ziyech, Achraf Hakimi, Sofiane Boufal, and Youssef En-Nesyri will be the plan again here against star-studded France.

Kylian Mbappe and Co. will have the majority of the ball and the chances, and as good as Morocco’s defense has been, I can’t see the Atlas Lions shutting out France like they did Spain and Portugal. France’s front three has been firing with Mbappe, Giroud, and Dembele, and after surviving vs. England, France will be a big favorite here. I think the clock finally strikes midnight on Morocco here as Mbappe and France will finally puncture Morocco’s previously impenetrable back line. France 2, Morocco 0

Gabriel: This is Florida Gulf Coast. This is Wichita State. Morocco’s darling run into the semifinals has been one of the best stories of this tournament. Morocco’s talent is clear and led by the European-level talent of Hakim Ziyech, it has been an impressive team to watch. Dispatching a Spanish side that looked like an early favorite to be in the final in the round of 16 definitely raised eyebrows and this team became the FIFA World Cup version of Iceland in the 2016 European Cup.

However, after watching France play England in the quarterfinals, it’s clear this team has a goal and the players to reach it. All of the talk has been about how we’ve yet to see the best of Kylian Mbappe, and the charisma he brings to the game. But he’s not even the player who has been France’s star.

Goalkeeper Hugo Lloris has been a wall.

Down the left flank, Antoine Griezmann has been torching opponents and getting great balls into the box.

And Olivier Giroud has been France’s best player by far and arguably up for best player of the tournament.

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There’s a want for Morocco to become the first African nation to be in a World Cup final for a lot of reasons and if you’ve looked at the African Cup of Nations tournaments the last few years, the Northern African nations have been really putting the football of that continent on the map (looking at you Algeria, Egypt and now, Morocco).

But France is on a mission and Morocco isn’t slowing it down. It was a nice run, but even Cinderella had to be home by midnight. This is Morocco’s 11th hour — but it’s France’s time. France 2, Morocco 0