Aces separating from Liberty as favorites to win 2023 WNBA title, Sun rising up boards

Coming into the 2023 WNBA season, the two “superteams” in the New York Liberty, led by offseason addition Breanna Stewart, and the Las Vegas Aces, led by reigning MVP A’ja Wilson, were expected to sit atop of their conferences and potentially meet in the WNBA Finals.

We’re a month into the season, and it’s clear that the aforementioned Aces are the league’s best team, off to a 11-1 start with a commanding five-game lead in the Western Conference standings. Wilson, who is the second option to win the WNBA MVP, is off to a great start, but so is former 2019 No. 1 overall pick Jackie Young, who’s averaging a career best 21 points per game, which has her at 10/1 odds to win MVP at Caesars. Before the season started, Young entered the season at 100/1 at BetMGM to take home the award.

» READ MORE: Mystics’ Elena Delle Donne gaining steam in MVP market after fast start to 2023 WNBA season

The Eastern Conference, on the other hand, has the Connecticut Sun at the top, off to hot start at 11-3, including a blowout win over the Aces, giving them their lone loss of the season earlier this month, led by the efforts of Harrisburg’s Alyssa Thomas, who keeps trending up the MVP odds board, valued at +550 currently as the third option. After entering the season with 20/1 odds, Thomas is averaging a near triple double (14.9 points, 10.4 rebounds, 7.6 assists) and recently tied the WNBA career record for triple-doubles with her third.

The Liberty have the MVP odds leader in Stewart and have a head-to-head win against the Sun this season, but are a couple of games out of first place after getting off to a 7-3 start thus far. The teams will meet next week for their second matchup of the season and won’t meet again until late August, when the race could be even tighter.

With over a quarter of the season gone, the Aces, as no surprise, are separating themselves from the pack in the odds to win the WNBA title. Here’s a look at the latest odds at BetMGM with a full weekend of games on the slate, including two nationally televised ABC games on Sunday.

After entering the season as near co-favorites to win the title, the Aces are the odds on favorites at -130, with the Liberty as the second option at +170.

The Washington Mystics, who entered as the third option among bettors to win it all, now sit with the fourth-best odds at 20/1 after a 8-4 start, led by Wilmington’s Elena Delle Donne and Broomall’s Natasha Cloud. The Sun, who are off to a hot start, leapfrogged them on the odds board and sit at 12/1 to win it all after starting the season at 40/1 odds.

Even with Brittney Griner back for the Mercury this season, things haven’t clicked for them, and they sit with the 10th-best odds to win the title at 80/1, after starting the season as the fourth option at BetMGM with 25/1 odds. The Mercury have the league’s worst record (2-9) to start the season.

The Seattle Storm have also gotten off to a rough start at 3-9, despite having WNBA leading scorer Jewell Loyd. After entering the season at 50/1, the Storm are tied with the Minnesota Lynx for the longest odds to win the championship at 150/1.

Earlier this week, BetMGM released data on some early betting returns from not only the futures market, but on day to day betting within the games.

As of Wednesday, the Sun had the most championship tickets, capturing 18.2% of total tickets, followed by the Aces (16.1%) and the Liberty (14.2%). In terms of handle, the Aces had the most, with 25.8%, followed by the Liberty (20.7%) and Sun (14.7%).

Betting underdogs have a winning record against favorites so far this season. Entering Wednesday’s slate of games, outright underdogs are 37-26-1 against the spread, including a 15-7 record as home ‘dogs, according to Action Labs, courtesy of the Action Network.