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2024 Belmont Stakes: Horse-by-horse preview of the Triple Crown race

A shorter race is in store as the event moves to Saratoga because of renovations to Belmont Park. Check out our predictions.

    by Ed Barkowitz, For The Inquirer
    Published 

The Belmont Stakes will look much different this year. A little leaner, a little shorter, not nearly as crowded.

Because of renovations to Belmont Park, it has been moved to Saratoga, a historic racetrack that has a number of interesting nicknames. The “Graveyard of Champions” is the most haunting.

The greatest single performance in a Triple Crown race is widely regarded as Secretariat’s win at the 1973 Belmont Stakes when he dusted the field by 31 lengths. He was a tremendous machine that day at Belmont Park, but two months later, Secretariat was upset by Onion in the Grade 2 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga.

Nicknames aside, the biggest change to this year’s Belmont Stakes is in its length. Saratoga does not have the track to accommodate a 1½-mile race without starting on a turn, so the race will be 1¼ miles — just like the Kentucky Derby.

Essentials

  1. What: 156th Belmont Stakes.

  2. When: Saturday, 6:41 p.m. Race 12 of 14.

  3. Where: Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, N.Y.).

  4. Distance: Shortened to 1¼ miles because of the move from Belmont Park.

  5. TV: FS1 (10:30 a.m.-4 p.m.), Fox (4-7 p.m.).

  6. Streaming: Fox Sports app.

  7. Weather: Partly cloudy with temperatures in the upper 70s. There’s a 20% chance of rain throughout the day.

Purse

Total: $2 million. First place: $1.2 million. Second place: $360,000. Third place: $200,000. Fourth place: $100,000. Fifth place: $60,000. Sixth place: $40,000. Seventh place: $20,000. Eighth place: $20,000.

Other notable races: Kentucky Derby (winner: Mystik Dan), Preakness Stakes (Seize the Grey), Haskell Stakes (July 20), Travers Stakes (Aug. 24), Breeders’ Cup (Nov. 1-2).

The field

1 — Seize the Grey (8-1)

  1. Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas. Jockey: Jaime Torres.

  2. Career earnings: $1,819,938

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 5-3-0-1

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 10-4-0-3

  5. Last three: Preakness Stakes (1st), Pat Day Mile (1st), Blue Grass Stakes (7th).

  6. Notable: Broke his maiden at 16-1 odds at Saratoga last July. Dornoch was second. Has been impressive his last two times out. Won the Preakness on a muddy track.

2 — Resilience (10-1)

  1. Trainer: Bill Mott. Jockey: Junior Alvarado.

  2. Career earnings: $494,630

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 4-2-0-0

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 7-2-1-1

  5. Last three: Kentucky Derby (6th), Wood Memorial (1st), Risen Star Stakes (4th).

  6. Notable: Switched jockeys after winning the Wood Memorial from John Velazquez to Alvarado. Resilience’s first career race was at Saratoga on Sept. 1 when he finished sixth.

3 — Mystik Dan (5-1)

  1. Trainer: Kenny McPeek. Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

  2. Career earnings: $4,141,360

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 5-2-1-1

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 8-3-2-1

  5. Last three: Preakness Stakes (2nd), Kentucky Derby (1st), Arkansas Derby (3rd).

  6. Notable: The last horse to win the Derby-Belmont while losing in the Preakness was Thunder Gulch in 1995. He finished third in the Preakness that year. Mystik Dan opened as the third favorite here.

4 — The Wine Steward (15-1)

  1. Trainer: Mike Maker. Jockey: Manny Franco.

  2. Career earnings: $467,260

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 2-0-2-0

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 6-3-3-0

  5. Last three: Peter Pan Stakes (2nd), Lexington Stakes (2nd), Breeders’ Futurity (2nd).

  6. Notable: Went six months between races (October-April) because of an undetermined allergy. Has finished first or second each time he has run.

5 — Antiquarian (12-1)

  1. Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Jockey: John Velazquez.

  2. Career earnings: $173,000

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 4-2-1-0

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 4-2-1-0

  5. Last three: Peter Pan Stakes (1st), Louisiana Derby (6th), Maiden/Fair Grounds (1st).

  6. Notable: Antiquarian alarmingly broke through the gate before the start of the Louisiana Derby and had the worst finish of his brief career. Pletcher said his behavior that day was uncharacteristic.

6 — Dornoch (15-1)

  1. Trainer: Danny Gargan. Jockey: Luis Saez.

  2. Career earnings: $552,275

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-1-0-0

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 7-3-2-0

  5. Last three: Kentucky Derby (10th), Blue Grass Stakes (4th), Fountain of Youth Stakes (1st).

  6. Notable: Dornoch’s 10th-place finish is the worst of the four Derby horses in the Belmont field. He had the inside post that day for the 20-horse field. His path should be much clearer on Saturday.

7 — Protective (20-1)

  1. Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione.

  2. Career earnings: $121,920

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-0-0-2

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 4-0-1-2

  5. Last three: Peter Pan Stakes (3rd), Wood Memorial (3rd), Maiden/Tampa Bay (4th).

  6. Notable: First career race was at Saratoga last July (finished second). The veteran Gaffalione has jockeyed just once in the Belmont Stakes, coming in ninth with War of Will in 2019.

8 — Honor Marie (12-1)

  1. Trainer: Whit Beckman. Jockey: Florent Geroux.

  2. Career earnings: $526,175

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-0-1-0

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 6-2-2-0

  5. Last three: Kentucky Derby (8th), Louisiana Derby (2nd), Risen Star Stakes (5th).

  6. Notable: Was ridden in the Derby by Ben Curtis, but he’s out after breaking his collarbone in a scary training exercise. This is Geroux’s fourth Belmont. His best finish was eighth in 2018 aboard Restoring Hope.

9 — Sierra Leone (9-5)

  1. Trainer: Chad Brown. Jockey: Flavien Prat.

  2. Career earnings: $1,918,000

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-2-1-0

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 5-3-2-0

  5. Last three: Kentucky Derby (2nd), Blue Grass Stakes (1st), Risen Star Stakes (1st).

  6. Notable: Brown, the trainer, has had his eye on the Belmont since getting nosed out at the Derby. Gaffalione was his jockey that day. Prat has two fourths and a second at the Belmont.

10 — Mindframe (7-2)

  1. Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

  2. Career earnings: $87,360

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 2-2-0-0

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 2-2-0-0

  5. Last two: Claiming/Churchill Downs (1st), Maiden/Gulfstream (1st).

  6. Notable: Has run only twice and both were wins: a 13¾-length romp at seven furlongs, and a 7½-length breeze at 1 1/16 miles his last time out on the Derby undercard. Might be the most interesting horse in the field.

Our picks

Ed Barkowitz: 3-Mystik Dan, 10-Mindframe, 4-The Wine Steward, 1-Seize the Grey

After taking Fierceness in the Derby (15th, ugh) and Imagination in the Preakness (seventh, double ugh), I might as well pick Khartoum to win this race. He hasn’t done much since The Godfather, so maybe he’s due. Semi-seriously, though. Putting Mystik Dan in a trifecta box with The Wine Steward and Mindframe, who has raced only twice but put up a 103 Beyer speed score when he broke his maiden on March 30. Just need him to keep his head on straight.

Kerith Gabriel: 1-Seize the Grey, 2-Resilience, 3-Mystic Dan, 6-Dornoch

Seize the Grey had a run at the Preakness few expected. And while I expected him to finish strong in the race, I did not think a win was in the cards. So why not go for two here and finish strong? He’ll have tough competition as Mystik Dan, winner of the Kentucky Derby, will be out to do the same, but in the Preakness it was evident Seize the Grey was the stronger horse. A 8-1 odds, there’s comfort in believing we’ll see a repeat in this final race of the 2024 Triple Crown series.

Jeff Neiburg: 10-Mindframe, 1-Seize the Grey, 9-Sierra Leone, 5-Antiquarian

On a gray day at Pimlico it was the gray horse with the grey name that ran away from the crowd. He’s no favorite Saturday, but he’s got a shot to do it again. However, Mindframe is a Todd Pletcher horse with two wins in two starts and is well-rested, and that’s a nice combo if he goes off anywhere near 7-2 odds.

Luke Reasoner: 4-The Wine Steward, 9-Sierra Leone, 1-Seize the Grey, 10-Mindframe

Third time’s a charm, right? I picked Sierra Leone (Belmont favorite) to win the Kentucky Derby — ended up second. I picked Tuscan Gold to win the Preakness — ended up fourth. So let’s see if we can get a winner this time around for the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga. (Everyone should visit the lake there, wonderful sailing venue nestled in upstate New York wine country.) So with that, let’s take a shot … with The Wine Steward, the New York-bred horse starting in the middle whose pedigree includes Curlin.

Sources: Inquirer research, Equibase.com, Daily Racing Form.