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2024 Kentucky Derby: Horse-by-horse preview of the Triple Crown race

Fierceness and Sierra Leone are among the favorites in the Run for the Roses. Check out our predictions.

Sierra Leone, among the Kentucky Derby favorites at 3-1 odds, works out at Churchill Downs on Wednesday.
Sierra Leone, among the Kentucky Derby favorites at 3-1 odds, works out at Churchill Downs on Wednesday.Read moreCharlie Riedel / AP
    by Ed Barkowitz, For The Inquirer
    Published 

Breaking down the field for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, and trying to cash a few tickets with some picks on a milestone day for the sport’s most prestigious race.

» READ MORE: Kentucky Derby notes: Jayson Werth’s horse is in. Bob Baffert’s is out.

Essentials

  1. What: The 150th Kentucky Derby

  2. When: Saturday, 6:57 p.m. Race 12 of 14.

  3. Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Ky.

  4. Distance: 1¼ miles.

  5. TV: NBC10 and Peacock. Streaming: NBCSports.com, NBC Sports app.

  6. Weather: Moderate chance of rain throughout the day. Temps in the 70s, light breeze.

  7. Total purse: $5 million. First place: $3.1 million. Second place: $1 million. Third place: $500,000. Fourth place: $250,000. Fifth place: $150,000.

  8. Other Triple Crown races: Preakness Stakes (May 18), Belmont Stakes (June 8).

The Field

Program number is listed. After Encino was scratched, the horses from 10 to 20 moved up one spot in post position.

1 - Dornoch (20-1)

  1. Trainer: Danny Gargan. Jockey: Luis Saez.

  2. Career earnings: $552,275

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 2-1-0-0

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 6-3-2-0

  5. Last three: Blue Grass Stakes (4th), Fountain of Youth Stakes (1st), Remsen Stakes (1st).

  6. Notable: Former Phillies outfielder Jayson Werth is a 10 percent owner. Name was inspired by Royal Dornoch G.C. in Scotland. Full brother of Mage, last year’s Derby winner as a 15-1 shot.

» READ MORE: Former Phillies star Jayson Werth fell in love with horse racing. Now he owns a Kentucky Derby entrant.

2 - Sierra Leone (3-1)

  1. Trainer: Chad Brown. Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione.

  2. Career earnings: $918.000

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 2-2-0-0

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 4-3-1-0

  5. Last three: Blue Grass Stakes (1st), Risen Star Stakes (1st), Remsen Stakes (2nd).

  6. Notable: Gaffalione has been the leading rider at Churchill Downs 11 times, but he’s never been close to winning the Derby. In six mounts, his average finish is 14th.

3 - Mystik Dan (20-1)

  1. Trainer: Kenny McPeek. Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

  2. Career earnings: $641,360

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-1-0-1

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 6-2-1-1

  5. Last three: Arkansas Derby (3rd), Southwest Stakes (1st), Smarty Jones Stakes (5th).

  6. Notable: Sired by Goldenscents, who finished 17th here in 201, but won the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile in 2013 and 2014.

4 - Catching Freedom (8-1)

  1. Trainer: Brad Cox. Jockey: Flavien Prat.

  2. Career earnings: $877,350

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-2-0-1

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 5-3-0-1

  5. Last three: Louisiana Derby (1st), Risen Star Stakes (3rd), Smarty Jones Stakes (1st).

  6. Notable: Prat has been money here, with a win (2019, Country House), a second, and three thirds since 2017.

5 - Catalytic (30-1)

  1. Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr. Jockey: Jose Ortiz.

  2. Career earnings: $216,825

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 2-0-2-0

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-1-2-0

  5. Last three: Florida Derby (2nd), Allowance/Tampa Bay (2nd), Maiden/Gulfstream (1st).

  6. Notable: Had similar odds last time out when he finished second, a monstrous 13½ lengths behind Fierceness.

6 - Just Steel (20-1)

  1. Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas. Jockey: Keith Asmussen.

  2. Career earnings: $724,545

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 4-0-3-0

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 11-2-4-1

  5. Last three: Arkansas Derby (2nd), Rebel Stakes (7th), Southwest Stakes (2nd).

  6. Notable: Has run 11 races, most in the field. Finished second in three of the last four. This will be Lukas’ 50th entrant. His last win was with Charismatic in 1999.

7 - Honor Marie (20-1)

  1. Trainer: Whit Beckman. Jockey: Ben Curtis.

  2. Career earnings: $526,175

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 2-0-1-0

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 5-2-2-0

  5. Last three: Louisiana Derby (2nd), Risen Star Stakes (5th), Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (1st).

  6. Notable: This is the Derby debut for the jockey and the trainer, who worked under Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown. Curtis has spent most of his career racing in Ireland and England.

8 - Just a Touch (10-1)

  1. Trainer: Brad Cox. Jockey: Florent Geroux.

  2. Career earnings: $281,700

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-1-2-0

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-1-2-0

  5. Last three: Blue Grass Stakes (2nd), Gotham Stakes (2nd), Maiden/Fair Grounds (1st).

  6. Notable: Did not race as a 2-year-old. His sire, Justify, also didn’t run as a 2-year-old. All he did was win the Triple Crown in 2018 and then go right to stud. Talk about going out on top.

Note: No. 9 Encino was scratched.

10 - T O Password (30-1)

  1. Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi. Jockey: Kazushi Kimura.

  2. Career earnings: $163,339

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 2-2-0-0

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 2-2-0-0

  5. Last three: Fukuryu Stakes (1st), Maiden/Kyoto (1st).

  6. Notable: Sixth horse with just two starts or fewer since 1946. Best finish was China Visit, 6th in 2000.

11 - Forever Young (10-1)

  1. Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi. Jockey: Ryusei Sakai.

  2. Career earnings: $2,049,451

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 2-2-0-0

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 5-5-0-0

  5. Last three: UAE Derby (1st), Saudi Derby (1st), Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun (1st).

  6. Notable: Seventh Japanese-bred horse to run in the Derby. Best finish has been sixth twice, including Derma Sotogake last year.

12 - Track Phantom (20-1)

  1. Trainer: Steve Asmussen. Jockey: Joel Rosario.

  2. Career earnings: $405,000

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-1-1-0

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 7-3-2-1

  5. Last three: Louisiana Derby (4th), Risen Star Stakes (2nd), Lecomte Stakes (1st).

  6. Notable: Asmussen’s 25 starts without a win are the most in Derby history. He had Epicenter in 2022, which was stunned by 81-1 shot Rich Strike. Rosario was the jockey.

13 - West Saratoga (50-1)

  1. Trainer: Larry Demeritte. Jockey: Jesus Castanon.

  2. Career earnings: $460,140

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-0-2-1

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 10-2-5-1

  5. Last three: Jeff Ruby Stakes (2nd), Sam F. Davis Stakes (3rd), Pasco Stakes/Black (2nd).

  6. Notable: Demeritte is the first Black trainer at the Derby since 1989 when Hank Allen’s Northern Wolf finished sixth. There were seven Black trainers who won here from 1875-91.

14 - Endlessly (30-1)

  1. Trainer: Michael McCarthy. Jockey: Umberto Rispoli.

  2. Career earnings: $707,200

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 2-2-0-0

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 6-5-0-0

  5. Last three: Jeff Ruby Stakes (1st), El Camino Real Derby (1st), Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (8th).

  6. Notable: Has never raced on dirt, which is why trainer McCarthy was leery of entering him here. But the owners decided otherwise.

15 - Domestic Product (30-1)

  1. Trainer: Chad Brown. Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

  2. Career earnings: $314,200

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 2-1-1-0

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 5-2-1-0

  5. Last three: Tampa Bay Derby (1st), Holy Bull Stakes (2nd), Remsen Stakes (7th).

  6. Notable: Hasn’t raced since March 9 when his win in the bumpy Tampa Bay Derby clinched his spot here. It’ll be a 56-day layoff come Derby Day.

16 - Grand Mo the First (50-1)

  1. Trainer: Victor Barboza Jr. Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo.

  2. Career earnings: $214,650

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-0-0-3

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 6-2-0-4

  5. Last three: Florida Derby (3rd), Tampa Bay Derby (3rd), Swale Stakes (3rd).

  6. Notable: Has finished third in each of his last four races, but would do well to hit the board here. Barboza is making his Derby debut, and Jaramillio is riding for the second time. He was aboard Majesto in 2016 (finished 18th).

17 - Fierceness (5-2)

  1. Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Jockey: John Velazquez.

  2. Career earnings: $1,703,850

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 2-1-0-1

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 5-3-0-1

  5. Last three: Florida Derby (1st), Holy Bull Stakes (3rd), Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (1st).

  6. Notable: Encino, the No. 9, getting scratched means Fierceness will break from the 16th post. He’ll still be No. 17 for betting purposes. Fierceness is owner Mike Repole’s third horse to enter Derby Week as the favorite. The previous two, Uncle Mo (2011) and Forte (2023), ended up getting scratched.

18 - Stronghold (20-1)

  1. Trainer: Phil D’Amato. Jockey: Antonio Fresu.

  2. Career earnings: $827,200

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 2-2-0-0

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 6-3-3-0

  5. Last three: Santa Anita Derby (1st), Sunland Park Derby (1st), Los Alamitos Futurity (2nd).

  6. Notable: Comes from Ghostzapper and Spectator, who died while giving birth to Stronghold. Ghostzapper won 2004 Horse of the Year over Smarty Jones.

19 - Resilience (20-1)

  1. Trainer: Bill Mott. Jockey: Junior Alvarado.

  2. Career earnings: $494,630

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-2-0-0

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 6-2-1-1

  5. Last three: Wood Memorial (1st), Risen Star Stakes (4th), Maiden/Gulfstream (1st).

  6. Notable: Mott added blinkers before the Wood Memorial and it did the trick. Alvarado will be Resilience’s fourth rider in seven starts.

20 - Society Man (50-1)

  1. Trainer: Danny Gargan. Jockey: Frankie Dettori.

  2. Career earnings: $196,705

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-1-1-0

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 5-1-1-1

  5. Last three: Wood Memorial (2nd), Maiden/Aqueduct (1st), Withers Stakes (8th).

  6. Notable: Finished second in the Wood Memorial as a 99-1 shot to earn a spot here. The $2 exacta with Resilience paid $742. Yo.

21 - Epic Ride (50-1)

  1. Trainer: John Ennis. Jockey: Adam Beschizza.

  2. Career earnings: $253,166

  3. 2024 starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 4-2-1-1

  4. Career starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 5-2-2-1

  5. Last three: Blue Grass Stakes (3rd), John Battaglia Memorial Stakes (2nd), Leonatus Stakes/Black (1st).

  6. Notable: All five career races have been in Kentucky, though this is his first start at Churchill. Got into the field when Encino Man was scratched.







Our picks

Ed Barkowitz: 17-Fierceness, 20-Society Man, 19-Resilience, 4-Catching Freedom

The long shots have been money lately in the Derby, but Fierceness winning the Florida Derby by 13½ lengths is indelible. Would love to see West Saratoga hit the board, but not sure that’s happening. Society Man ran second to Resilience at the Wood Memorial at better than 100-1, so he’ll be my long shot here. Box him in with the 17/19.

Kerith Gabriel: 4-Catching Freedom, 2-Sierra Leone, 5-Catalytic, 18-Stronghold

Historically, relying on pure gut and not the experts has yet to fail me. I know oddsmakers and pundits have the money on Fierceness, but I’m not sold. Look for Catching Freedom. His jockey, Flavian Prat, is due to win another Kentucky Derby after winning in 2019 and this horse has a motor that stays until the end. Want a long shot? Take a look at Catalytic, for no other reason than I caught two guys trying to steal mine from off my car at 2 a.m. earlier this year (true story). Those things are a hot commodity, which gives me an idea that this horse is, too.

Jeff Neiburg: 17-Fierceness, 11-Forever Young, 1-Dornoch, 2-Sierra Leone

Fierceness is the favorite and that’s boring, but it’s a combo platter of Todd Pletcher and John Velasquez and that’s basically an ATM machine. Forever Young is a horse from Japan with a great name and an undefeated record with an owner, a trainer, and a jockey making their first Derby appearance. It will be a memorable one. As for Dornoch? Yeah, there’s some Jayson Werth bias there.

Luke Reasoner: 2-Sierra Leone, 14-Endlessly, 7-Honor Marie, 5-Catalytic

Here’s to Chad Brown finally landing in the winner’s circle that rests in the shadows of the Twin Spires. While the favorites and others have ties to Ocala, Fla., sometimes you have to pick one from the Bluegrass State.