Belmont Stakes: Tacitus is the obvious pick, and that’s no reason to bet against him | Dick Jerardi

I have just one problem with Tacitus in the Belmont Stakes -- the colt just looks too obvious.

So I did an exercise in which I tried to come up with reasons Tacitus was not going to win. Coming up with none put me right back in the obvious camp. I think Tacitus is going to win the Belmont on Saturday and it might not be close.

I was not a big Tacitus fan going into the Kentucky Derby. He outperformed what I expected to see, finishing fourth before being moved to third after the disqualification of Maximum Security.

Watching the replay, I thought Tacitus looked very uncomfortable getting hit early by all that flying mud, causing him to drop much farther back than was helpful to his chances.

The pace slowed dramatically on the backstretch. By the far turn, 15 horses were within six lengths of one another, which set the stage for the chaos on the turn. Tacitus was more or less trapped behind that slowly moving pack for a mile, with nowhere to run while using precious energy.

When Tactitus finally got free at the quarter pole, he gave a big run in the stretch, holding off 2-year-old champion Game Winner, passing Improbable, and then decisively winning the gallop out after the finish line.

The Belmont is 440 yards longer than the Derby. It is those 440 yards where Tacitus is most likely to shine. If ever a colt was bred for the Belmont’s mile-and-a-half, it is Tacitus. He is by superstar sire Tapit out of five-time Grade I winner Close Hatches, and I can’t remember a better-bred colt in the Triple Crown series.

The only time Tapit has not sired the Belmont winner since 2014 were those years when we had a Triple Crown winner. Frosted, second to American Pharoah in the 2015 Belmont, was by, you guessed it, Tapit.

So there is the difficult Derby trip and the brilliant bloodlines. There is also the modern history in which horses that run in the Derby or Derby weekend and then pass the Preakness come back to win the Belmont. That has been the winning formula 10 times since 2000.

Bill Mott trains Tacitus, and this is his kind of horse: a little better, a little stronger each race before peaking for the race that always fit the horse best. This Belmont is that race.

That Tacitus is at his home track and has his regular jockey Jose Ortiz, who has ridden him in all five starts, just adds to my confidence.

So which horse is going to be second?

Even though War of Will won the Preakness, I think Tacitus is going to be the favorite. I liked War of Will at Pimlico but did not love his race. He caught a dream trip on a rail that was so live a no-hoper like Everfast came along to be second on that rail. Under the circumstances, War of Will really should have won by more.

Appreciate that trainer Mark Casse, one of the good guys in the business, is running War of Will, who will be the only horse to appear in each of the Triple Crown races this year. I just wonder if the grind is going to catch up with him.

If it does, I am hoping to get one of the two Todd Pletcher-trained horses home for second, Spinoff or Intrepid Heart.

Put a line through Spinoff’s Derby. He was not fast enough to get early position and looked as if he hated the slop. Intrepid Heart has raced only three times but is also by the great Tapit.

Pletcher has been golden in the Belmont, winning three, with five seconds since 2006. Like Mott, Pletcher is at his home track, where both he and his horses are very comfortable.

That Spinoff gets jockey Javier Castellano and Intrepid Heart gets John Velazquez certainly does not hurt.

My guess is that because the colt is so obvious, Tacitus is going to get way overbet, which, of course, is why exactas and trifectas were invented.