Is there long shot value to bet against Connor McDavid winning the 2023-24 Hart Trophy?

Handicapping the 2023-24 Hart Trophy race really boils down to one conundrum: Are you brave enough to go against Connor McDavid?

Coming off a 153-point season in which he essentially had the league MVP locked up by Christmas, it’s no surprise that McDavid currently sits as the even-money favorite to repeat as the Hart Trophy winner. McDavid is not only the clear favorite, but he’s the only player with single-digit odds at Caesar’s Sportsbook.

David Pastrnak and Nathan MacKinnon are projected to be McDavid’s most robust competition, but they’re both sitting at +1200, leading a chasing pack that also includes Leon Draisaitl and Auston Matthews at +1500.

McDavid has 381 points over his last 218 games and has been named the NHL’s Most Valuable Player in two of the last three seasons and three of the last seven.

» READ MORE: Is the NHL futures market overrating the Flyers? There’s good value to be had betting on Philly to finish last.

The case for betting McDavid is easy to make. He’s head-and-shoulders better than every other skater in the league, so if he stays healthy you’d have to imagine that there’s better than a 50% chance that he wins the award (and likely does it going away).

If you are looking to beat McDavid, I’d focus on the longshots. It would take a mammoth effort to upset No. 97 in this race, so you’ll want to be rewarded handsomely if you get it right. I’d imagine that Auston Matthews, Jack Hughes and Tage Thompson will all be relatively trendy picks in that +1800 to +3000 range, but I’ll go well beyond that.

The two names that jump off the page to me for very similar reasons are Ilya Sorokin at +7500 and Connor Hellebuyck at +10000.

Both Sorokin and Hellebuyck are among the favorites to win the Vezina Trophy this coming season and are the most important players on teams that are projected to be on the fringe of the playoff picture. If either the New York Islanders or Winnipeg Jets have big seasons, it will likely be on the shoulders of Sorokin and/or Hellebuyck, respectively.

It’s rare that goalies win the Hart Trophy and none have won it since Carey Price in 2014-15, but it’s not unheard of for netminders to be in contention for the award. In fact, Igor Shesterkin was well in the hunt before Auston Matthews ran away with the honor in 2021-22.

The simplest argument here is that Sorokin and Hellebuyck are considered top contenders to win the Vezina Trophy and if they do that they will at the very least be on the fringe of the Hart Trophy conversation and could be even more involved if things go a little sideways for McDavid.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.