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2024-25 Premier League relegation odds and picks

West Ham United could be worth a long-shot punt in this market

Leicester City's Patson Daka runs back with the ball after Chelsea's Axel Disai scored an own goal during the FA Cup quarterfinal soccer match on March 17.
Leicester City's Patson Daka runs back with the ball after Chelsea's Axel Disai scored an own goal during the FA Cup quarterfinal soccer match on March 17.Read moreDave Shopland / AP
    by Michael Leboff, Action Network
    Published 

Match week 1 of the 2024-25 English Premier League season is just about on the horizon.

Slated to start on Aug. 16, the competition is projected to be a two-horse race between Manchester City and Arsenal at the top of the table, but the fight at the bottom of the table should be a real tussle.

Leicester City is the consensus favorite to go right back down to the Championship at -250. The Foxes finished first in the second division in 2023-24, but they are in danger of being tagged with a points deduction, which is why their odds are so short.

The Foxes are one of two newly-promoted teams — along with Ipswich Town — that are odds-on to be relegated. Ipswich is -138 at the time of writing,

The other newly-promoted club, Southampton, is the third choice in this market at +137.

But all hope isn’t lost for the clubs who spent last season in the second division. Everton, which has narrowly avoided relegation in two of the last three seasons and could face another points deduction this coming year, is +162 to be relegated for the first time since 1951.

Nottingham Forest, who was also handed a points deduction in 2023-24 and finished the season in 17th-place, is +200 to be sent down and Wolverhampton is right behind at +350. That gives us six teams at +350 or shorter to be relegated.

Perhaps the funkiest relegation odds belong to Manchester City. Although the Cityzens are the consensus favorites to win the league for an unprecedented fifth time on the spin, there is the potential that City is handed a severe punishment for breaching Financial Fair Play regulations. That’s why City, whose true odds of being relegated on just results would be astronomical, is sitting at just +1600 to go down.

In terms of betting value, one team to keep an eye on is West Ham United at +2000. There’s been a heap of changes in West London this summer with David Moyes departing and Julen Lopetegui coming in, but the truth is the Hammers have been trending down for quite some time. West Ham finished inside the top-half in 2023-24, but they were 15th in goal difference and 16th in expected goal differential, per FBRef.

According to Understat, West Ham had an expected points of 41.3, which is well short of their actual total of 51. Some regression looms for this squad.

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