Bet on Manchester City’s betting value to win the 2024-25 Premier League title

The international soccer summer is now in the rear-view mirror, meaning it’s time to start taking a big picture look at the Premier League season that’s only a few weeks away. Matchweek 1 begins on Friday, Aug. 16.

As usual, Manchester City is the consensus favorite to win the title at +125. The Cityzens have finished atop the Premier League in each of the last four seasons and have not endured any major changes yet this summer, so oddsmakers see no reason to doubt their status as the best team in the world’s best league.

Pep Guardiola’s Sky Blues do have a serious challenger, however. Arsenal, who finished two points behind City in 2023-24 and five back in 2022-23, is the second favorite at +170. If you were to combine the implied probability of City and Arsenal, you’d get an 81.4% chance that one of these two clubs wins the title in 2024-25.

Liverpool, now under the guidance of Arne Slot after Jurgen Klopp’s departure, is the third-favorite at +700. That number seems a bit short given the expected turnover at Anfield with Klopp out of the picture.

Chelsea’s number also seems underwhelming. The Blues are +1400 to win their first title since 2016 and they certainly have the talent to compete with City, Arsenal and Liverpool, but there’s been so much turnover at Stamford Bridge that you’d be asking a lot of this group to put it all together after finishing 12th in 2022-23 and sixth in 2023-24. Chelsea may be a trendy dark horse among pundits, but bettors should hope for a longer number than this on a team with a boom-or-bust profile.

Manchester United (+2400) and Newcastle (+2600) round out the top-six in the betting odds and like with Chelsea, you’d be paying a bit of a premium on these two teams given the underwhelming campaigns they just endured.

» READ MORE: Bet on the Twins’ money line over the first five innings against the Phillies in series opener

It’s a boring suggestion, but at this time the best way to find value in this market is to wait for Manchester City’s number to drift and try to buy in at the right time. City has made a habit of putting together pedestrian results in the first half of the season over the last few years and that’s allowed challengers like Arsenal and Liverpool to overtake them in the standings and the betting board deep into the campaign.

But City has proven time and again that once it fits its stride, there’s no slowing down.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.