Romania and Belgium to win their respective matches among best Group E bets for Wednesday’s 2024 Euros

We’re one step closer to the knockout stage of the 2024 Euros, but first there’s still a bit of work remaining in determining which teams will officially punch their tickets into the next round.

While there’s been no shortage of excitement in this year’s tournament, topping the drama that awaits us in Group E could be difficult.

Group E features four teams (Romania, Belgium, Slovakia and Ukraine) that are all level on points (three) after playing two matches. Such a scenario has never occurred before in the 64-year history of the competition.

If you like chaos, then you’re probably rooting for both matches on the final day of the group stage to end in a draw. Given all the possibilities and permutations that could unfold, this is a dream scenario for bettors.

In this preview, I’ll share what we should glean heading into the final matchday in Group E.

With all four teams in the group level on points, we’d have to use goal differential for our first tiebreaker. However, since Romania and Belgium are the only teams level in that category, our next available tiebreaker is goals scored.

And with three goals already in the tournament, Romania pips ahead of Belgium, which has two goals. Slovakia is currently third in the group because it has an even goal differential, while Ukraine is fourth (-2).

On Thursday, Ukraine will face Belgium, while Slovakia will take on Romania.

If you’re paying attention to the all-important expected-goals difference metric, Belgium should probably sit atop the group given its +1.9 xGD. However, the Belgians saw three goals disallowed, two for offsides and another for a handball.

Romelu Lukaku was the Belgian striker who suffered the ignominious fate of having all three goals chalked off the board by the Video Assistant Referee (VAR). Lukaku was also notably responsible for Belgium’s exit from the 2022 World Cup after missing three clear-cut chances against Croatia in the group stage.

While Lukaku remains somewhat unreliable in a big spot, he’ll likely be bailed out by one of his teammates, as Belgium should have enough quality to get past Ukraine.

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The second match pits Slovakia against Romania, and I think it’s fair to say that the Repre were very fortunate to pull out a 1-0 victory over Belgium in its opener.

According to xGscore, Belgium had a 1.79 xG compared to Slovakia’s 0.78. Moreover, Slovakia’s -1.7 xGD is the worst mark in Group E.

In eight meetings against Slovakia, Romania has yet to suffer a loss (4-0-4).

The Tricolours were unlucky not to get on the scoresheet against Belgium after registering a 0.97 xG. A sensational goal from outside the box by Youri Tielemans in the second minute put Belgium up 1-0 before Kevin De Bruyne latched on to a backward header off a free kick from Red Devils goalkeeper Koen Casteelsby.

The two goals required exceptional brilliance from both players, and Romania simply won’t be up against that level of quality when it takes on Slovakia.

With the top spot in the group essentially up for grabs, I’d expect all four teams to come out aggressively and play to win the match. My model doesn’t project any draws in the final matchday of Group E, as I have both Romania and Belgium emerging victoriously.

As a result, a Belgium and Romania top-two finish at -188 is a worthy option for our best bet in the bet365 dual forecast market.

We can also get a bit more aggressive with a half-unit same-game parlay at +525 with Belgium and Romania to win their matches.

Lastly, with Ukraine already fourth on goal differential, I don’t fancy the Blue and Yellow’s chances of improving its position in the group. Thus, backing Ukraine to finish fourth at -125 is another wager worth considering for Group E.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.