49ers’ Deebo Samuel among three best values to win Super Bowl MVP

We’re a little more than a week away from Super Bowl LVIII, and there are differing opinions across the betting market regarding the point spread for the big game.

The San Francisco 49ers opened as 2.5-point favorites before being bet down -1. That number has started to tick back up, with FanDuel being the first sportsbook to return to the opening number.

No matter which team you like in the game, bettors can now find point spreads ranging from 1.5, 2 and 2.5.

But we’ll leave the discussion on the point spread for another day. In this preview, we’ll examine some players with extremely long odds to win Super Bowl MVP.

Try this on for size if you’re looking for a good Super Bowl trivia question. How often did a player win the Super Bowl MVP on a losing team, and if so, who was (were) the player(s)?

The correct answer is that there’s only been one MVP from a losing team: Cowboys’ linebacker Chuck Howley in Super Bowl V. Howley intercepted two passes and forced a fumble in the Cowboys’ 16-13 loss to the Baltimore Colts.

Since that Super Bowl in 1971, all the other MVPs have come from the winning team, perhaps because it’s much easier to market the award when done in tandem with the Super Bowl trophy.

Thus, any MVP wagers you make should align with whichever team you think will emerge victorious.

Quarterbacks have won the Super Bowl MVP 32 times, more than all other positions combined (26). Wide receivers have won the award eight times. Running backs have won seven of the awards, defensive players have won 10 times, while a special teams player has won it once.

Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp was the last non-quarterback to win the MVP (2022). The last running back to win the award was Terrell Davis with the Broncos in 1998, and the most recent defensive winner was another former Bronco, Von Miller, in 2016.

BetMGM lists Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes as the MVP favorite at +125 despite the Chiefs being underdogs. His counterpart, Brock Purdy, has the second-shortest price at +220.

Unfortunately, since those odds aren’t enticing enough for me to back either player, here are three options that might be worth considering.

Since we want longer odds for our MVP pick, San Francisco’s wide receiver is an excellent option if you like the 49ers to win the game.

Initially, there was the thought that Samuel would miss the NFC Conference Championship after re-injuring his left shoulder. However, he went on to play in the game and even led the 49ers with 89 receiving yards.

The versatile player can carry the ball out of the backfield and handle the punt return duties for the 49ers. Thus, Samuel could impact the game on multiple fronts.

There’s already a bit of a bias with Purdy, given that he was the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft. After all, how can so many teams and talking heads around the league be so wrong about any player?

Down the stretch during the regular season, people were finding any reason to avoid picking Purdy as their MVP. If San Francisco wins this game, we could see a similar scenario where it’s down to anyone but the 49ers’ starting quarterback.

» READ MORE: Bet on the Chiefs underdog spread against 49ers in our early Super Bowl LVIII prediction

I know it’s almost sacrilegious to think of someone on the Chiefs other than Mahomes winning this award. However, Pacheco has a path if Kansas City does the unthinkable and opts for a heavy-run strategy.

I still remember the 2014 AFC Championship game when Patriots coach Bill Belichick opted for more of a rushing attack against the Colts. New England ran the ball 46 times for 234 yards. LeGarrette Blount was the primary beneficiary, finishing with 24 carries, 166 rushing yards and four touchdowns.

New England’s Tom Brady threw the ball just 25 times in a game that many expected to be defined by both passing offenses, with the Colts’ Andrew Luck as the other half of the quarterback matchup.

While I don’t think the Chiefs’ defense will be as worrisome going up against Purdy as when the Patriots faced Luck, we’ve seen both the Packers and Lions successfully run the ball against the 49ers.

In the divisional round, Green Bay rushed for 4.9 yards per carry but finished with only 135 rushing yards after surprisingly abandoning the run. The following week, the Lions rushed for 182 yards on 29 attempts (6.3 yards per carry).

Thus, it’s not entirely far-fetched to think the Chiefs could completely shock everyone with a game plan that prioritizes Pacheco in the running game.

If you really want to get nuts, how about a defensive player to win MVP?

Hear me out. The Chiefs have one of the best pass defenses in the league and will face a second-year quarterback who will play in the biggest game of his life.

Purdy has thrown an interception in each game during the playoffs and had three games during the regular season with two or more interceptions. Moreover, he’s twice thrown two interceptions to the same safety.

Edwards already has an interception during the postseason and scored the lone touchdown on a scoop-and-score in Kansas City’s 13-12 victory over the Chargers in Week 18.

If Purdy is a little loose with the football and tries to force some throws, Edwards could definitely make him pay.

While it’s a tall task, I think you could do much worse than selecting Edwards as your long shot MVP for Super Bowl LVIII.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.