Bet on the Chiefs underdog spread against 49ers in our early Super Bowl LVIII prediction

The matchup is set for Super Bowl LVIII, as the Chiefs and 49ers won their respective conference championship on Sunday to punch their tickets to Las Vegas.

This is a rematch from four years ago when Patrick Mahomes claimed his first of two Super Bowl titles in a 31-20 victory. Our Action Labs database shows the game opened as a pick’em before the Chiefs closed as -1.5-point favorites.

This time, the Chiefs opened as 2.5-point underdogs, but that number went down as much as 1.5 points in the first 12 hours at most sportsbooks.

In this early preview of the big game, I’ll share why there’s only one team bettors should be looking to back in this matchup.

» READ MORE: 49ers open as slight favorites over Chiefs ahead of Super Bowl LVIII

Some might think the Chiefs were extremely fortunate to reach yet another Super Bowl.

However, as Billy Zane’s character, Caledon Hockley, said in the movie Titanic, “A real man makes his own luck.”

I know Baltimore held Kansas City scoreless for the entire second half, but it never felt like the Chiefs ever lost control of the game.

For one, Kansas City won the turnover battle, 3-0, and maintained its composure by committing only three penalties for 30 yards. In contrast, the Ravens committed eight penalties, totaling 95 yards, with some occurring at crucial moments of the game.

The reality is the Chiefs simply aren’t going to beat themselves. If you put your faith in Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, they’re unlikely to disappoint.

When the Chiefs needed to make a play, they were able to do so. For example, does anyone think they wouldn’t have been able to score some points on their championship-winning drive?

With Baltimore needing to make a stop to get the ball back, Kansas City moved the ball 53 yards to the Ravens’ 22-yard line before going into victory formation.

The key play of the drive occurred on 3rd-and-9 when Mahomes found a wide-open Marquez Valdes-Scantling for a 32-yard reception to put the game to bed. While the Chiefs ultimately didn’t record any points on that drive, they were well within reach.

When tested, the Chiefs tend to find that extra gear with Mahomes revealing the Superman cape he conceals underneath his jersey.

In my opinion, the Chiefs were always in control of the game.

Unlike Kansas City, the 49ers were trailing from the onset and had to rally from the largest halftime deficit (17) in a conference championship to advance to the Super Bowl.

San Francisco took advantage of some key Detroit turnovers in the second half to get back in the game.

On two occasions, the Lions tried to move the chains on fourth down despite already being in field goal range. Those attempts proved unsuccessful as they failed to put any points on the board.

The 49ers turned those failed Detroit possessions into touchdowns on both occasions. But to be fair, Lions coach Dan Campbell was just as aggressive in this game on fourth down as he’d been all season.

Unfortunately for them, the Lions left the door slightly ajar for the 49ers, who walked right through it.

Despite rushing for 182 yards, I thought the Lions still didn’t run the ball enough. Detroit averaged 6.3 yards per carry on 29 attempts.

There’s a tendency for these coaches to try to outthink themselves in these games, and I believe Campbell was guilty of this.

San Francisco is unlikely to have the same level of success against a well-coached Chiefs unit.

While I thought 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy made some good throws, the Chiefs have one of the best pass defenses in the league.

We’ve heard so much about this 49ers’ defense, but they were fortunate to escape the divisional round against a first-year starting quarterback (Jordan Love) and then allowed 31 points at home to the Lions.

I’m not buying the hype with the 49ers, as I think this team can be found out, particularly with an extra week of preparation for the Chiefs’ coaching staff.

I’m sorry, but if you give me a choice between Mahomes and 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, I’m going with the guy who’s already a Hall of Fame-worthy quarterback just six years into his career as a starter.

Mahomes once again opened as an underdog, and according to our Action Labs database, he’s 10-1-1 against the spread (ATS) in this spot.

Moreover, underdog teams are 13-7 ATS in the Super Bowl dating to the 2003-04 season.