Back this eight-leg parlay that features an Argentina win over Canada in the Copa América semifinal

Canada’s impressive run at Copa America continues Wednesday night as it takes on Argentina in the semifinals at MetLife Stadium.

This is the second meeting in the tournament between the two teams. They faced one another in the opening match of Group A.

La Albiceleste had to wait until the 49th minute to get on the scoresheet when Julian Alvarez latched onto a rebound opportunity inside the 6-yard box following a challenge on Alexis Mac Allister by Canada’s goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau.

A Lautaro Martinez goal in the 88th minute would seal a 2-0 victory for Argentina after scoring from 12 yards inside the box.

Since its opening loss to Argentina, Canada conceded just one more goal over its next three matches to reach the semifinals.

Les Rouges will need to be at their best defensively to have a chance against an Argentinian side that leads the tournament with an expected goals (xG) mark of 8.7.

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Argentina dominated the earlier match against Les Rouges, winning 64.4% of the possession. And with La Albiceleste controlling possession, Canada almost has to chase shadows while trying to plug any defensive gaps.

To Canada’s credit, it will likely still try to be brave under manager Jesse Marsch. Although the Canadians could set up in a low block, Marsch prefers a 4-4-2 formation.

The former RB Salzburg manager has quality up top with forwards Cyle Larin (Mallorca) and Jonathan David (Lille). However, if Larin and David have to drop deeper defensively, Canada will have opportunities to counterattack.

To unlock Canada’s defense, Argentina will likely rely on Mac Allister in midfield. According to Opta Sports, the Liverpool man has successfully completed 122 of his 135 passes in the competition. Moreover, 70 of those passes occurred in the opponent’s half.

If Canada doesn’t offer much of a threat going forward, look for Argentina to push its wing players Marcos Acuna and Nahuel Molina even further up the pitch to create overloads.

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Canada will need to be very disciplined in this match, considering it’s unlikely to see much of the ball.

While there are some positives it can take away from the earlier meeting after holding Argentina scoreless in the first half, the assignment won’t get any easier, given the humid conditions and a heat advisory currently in effect.

In addition to the weather, Argentina’s manager, Lionel Scaloni, has been critical of the playing surfaces in the United States.

“The pitch always has an influence. It’s a reality that the pitches aren’t good,” Scaloni told reporters. I think the best one was the one in Miami, which was good from what you saw from the outside at least. It’s natural and that’s already different.”

Even though tournament organizers installed grass over the artificial turf at MetLife Stadium, the surface certainly isn’t as slick or fast as the players are used to at the top leagues worldwide.

Les Rouges will probably need every help they can get to slow the game down, as the conditions might not allow for a high-scoring affair.

Crepeau has already been busy in goal for Canada. The Portland Timbers netminder leads all goalkeepers in the tournament with 16 saves. His goals conceded (three) have been even better than his expected goals on target (xGOT) of 4.95.

Thus, it certainly won’t hurt Canada’s chances to have an in-form goalkeeper against the 15-time Copa America winners.

Under Marsch’s tutelage, Les Rouges has proven to be a very capable defensive team. While Canada has already surpassed all expectations with this semifinal run, it will likely do everything to try and extend the match as much as possible.

I’d expect the Canadians to make even more of a defensive effort than they did in their 2-0 loss. As a result, the under of 2.5 goals at -115 offers plenty of intrigue. However, I do expect Argentina’s pressure to be too much for Canada to overcome.

This will be the third meeting at the senior level between the two teams, and Argentina has a 7-0 goal edge.

Argentina has shut out its opponents in three of its four matches in the competition, thanks to the stellar play of goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez, whose post-shot expected goals (PSxG) mark of 1.4 is the best in the tournament.

Considering that I don’t project many goals in this match, it’s unlikely both teams will be on the scoresheet.

La Albiceleste should control the match offensively and ask questions of this Canadian defense. As a result, I recommend being a bit more aggressive in this contest by targeting a bet365 same-game parlay centered on Argentina’s dominance.

Look for Argentina to finish with more shots and on target while accumulating over three corner kicks in the match.

Even if Canada does manage to force penalties by holding the World Cup winners scoreless, Martinez has already proven to be one of the best in the world at defending spot kicks.

Argentina should ultimately advance to the finals with Lauturo Martinez playing at least some part in the fixture. The Inter Milan striker has averaged at least one shot attempt in each of Argentina’s four matches despite only starting in the last two.

Lastly, my model also projects Canada to pick up at least one card as it tries to slow down the Argentinian attack.

With Argentina as a heavy favorite, this same-game parlay of eight legs offers a much better return with odds of +200.

Best bet: Same-game parlay (+200)

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