Back Argentina to win as sizable favorites against Chile in Copa América group stage match

Argentina is off to a flying start in its Copa América title defense, having won 2-0 in the tournament’s opening match against Canada.

Canada held Argentina scoreless for the first half until the 49th minute when Lionel Messi sent a menacing pass inside the box for Alexis Mac Allister. Despite failing to bring the ball under his spell, Mac Allister was credited for the assist after the ball fell kindly to Julian Alvarez, who couldn’t miss in front of an open net.

While Mac Allister would receive credit for the assist, Messi’s brilliance ultimately set everything in motion. Messi would have to wait until the 88th minute to get on the scoresheet when he threaded almost an identical pass, this time to Lautaro Martinez, who slotted the ball past the Canadian goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau.

Argentina now faces a Chilean team that just drew 0-0 with Peru in its opener. Although Argentina is currently a -200 favorite for Wednesday’s primetime matchup in MetLife Stadium (9 p.m. ET, FS1), I’ll share why bettors should still find value even at that price.

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Argentina peppered the Canadian goal with plenty of chances, finishing with 19 shot attempts and nine on target. The scoreline could’ve been more lopsided if not for Crepeau and his seven saves. After all, Argentina dominated possession with 64.4% of the ball and a pass success rate of 91%.

While Messi often received criticism for his national team’s shortcomings, La Albiceleste finally has a roster that is well-suited to his qualities.

The eight-time Ballon d’Or winner has the freedom to move anywhere on the pitch, and he’s not averse to dropping into the midfield to receive the ball while creating space in the channels for other players. Messi’s involvement allows Argentina’s attack to advance up the pitch rather seamlessly while almost suffocating the opponent in their own half.

To have any chance of defeating Argentina, Chile will have to settle for counter-attacking opportunities because it is unlikely to see much of the ball.

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Chile failed to live up to expectations as a +115 favorite in its opener against Peru. La Roja began the tournament with odds of 33-to-1 while bookmakers priced Peru as high as 66-to-1.

Chile’s Alexis Sanchez squandered the best chance of the match for either team in the 16th minute when he skied a Víctor Davila cross over the bar while inside the 6-yard box.

La Roja was particularly wasteful in front of the goal, as only one of their 11 shot attempts was on target. As a result, Chile’s expected goals (xG) for the match was a woeful -0.08.

While undergoing a transition under new manager Ricardo Gareca, the Chileans have had trouble getting the ball over the line lately, as they have just three goals in their last 11 matches, excluding friendlies.

Gareca is famous for leading Peru to World Cup qualification in 2018 and a runner-up finish at Copa América in 2019.

While the Argentinian is somewhat regarded as a miracle worker, he’ll have his hands full in trying to introduce a new wave of Chilean internationals.

He has already made some big decisions, opting not to select veterans Arturo Vidal, Gary Medel and Charles Aranguiz, who have a combined 404 caps with Chile. He’ll likely need some additional time to find his preferred lineup after only taking the job in late January.

Chile’s toothless performance against Peru doesn’t bode well, considering it won 2-0 in October when the two sides last met in a World Cup qualifier. But that result came under the helm of Eduardo Berizzo, who has since been relieved of his duties.

Argentina and Chile are two teams trending in opposite directions, and La Roja’s impotence in front of goal makes it well worth a fade against the current World Cup and Copa America champions.

Look for La Albiceleste to be the more clinical of the two sides, with Messi likely pulling the strings in some capacity.

With odds at -200, Argentina is a deserving favorite to make it two wins in two matches at Copa America.

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