Bet on Daniil Medvedev to pull off upset against Jannik Sinner in Sunday’s Australian Open Final

Jannik Sinner is putting together a performance for the ages at the 2024 Australian Open.

Not only has the 22-year-old Italian lost just one set en route to his first-ever major final, but he ended Novak Djokovic’s 33-match winning streak at the Australian Open to get there. Sinner’s win over Djokovic was as straightforward a victory over the 24-time Grand Slam champion as you’d ever see. The Serb was never able to put the up-and-comer under any pressure, which has been a theme for Sinner during this fortnight.

Daniil Medvedev’s path to the Australian Open Final has been much the opposite of Sinner’s. Medvedev was under pressure from the onset. The Russian lost the first set of the competition to World No. 144 Terence Atmane and then had to erase a two-set deficit in Round 2 against Emil Ruusuvuori.

Things got a little bit easier for Medvedev in the next two rounds, but he would have to go the distance in the quarterfinals against Hubert Hurkacz and then put together an epic comeback against Alexander Zverev in the semifinals.

Medvedev’s mental game is off the charts and it was on full display in the semifinals. The Russian looked dead in the water, but was able to hold his nerve in tiebreakers in the third and fourth set to steal momentum from the big-serving German. It was a stunning performance.

On paper, Sinner looks like a deserving favorite in Sunday morning’s (3:30 a.m. ET) final. He’s in scintillating form and has spent nearly seven fewer hours on court compared to Medvedev, but there’s just no way you can count out the Russian, even with the fatigue factor.

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Medevedev is impossible to gameplan for and should provide more resistance to the Sinner serve than any player has so far in this tournament. The Italian has won 86 of 88 service games (98%) in Melbourne, so he’s yet to face any real pressure in this tournament. That should change against Medvedev, a player who thrives at outwitting his opponents in the big moments.

The experience edge goes to Medvedev, a Grand Slam winner and six-time finalist, and I trust him to be able to overcome any fatigue and form disadvantages with his cleverness and ability to weather any storm that Sinner will throw at him.

You can expect plenty of money to show up on Sinner as he’s the form player and has spent so much less time on-court, so Medvedev backers can wait and strike at the last minute.

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