Take the under on points scored Monday between the Bengals and Jaguars

When the schedule-makers crafted Bengals vs Jaguars in Week 13′s Monday Night Football game, they envisioned Joe Burrow vs Trevor Lawrence being the headline. Circumstances have changed due to Burrow’s season-ending injury, and Jacksonville are ten point favorites.

I expect the Jaguars to win, but the best moneyline price for them is -480. I’m also weary of betting on spreads as large as this one. That’s why my pick is under 40 points being scored in this game on FanDuel. Make sure to use the FanDuel promo code if you’re a new player before signing up.

As the ten point home favorites, the Jaguars are 8-3 to their credit. Interestingly enough, they’re 3-3 at home compared to 5-0 on the road. Despite being the tenth highest scoring offense, it feels like this team has more to offer than what they’ve produced.

Trevor Lawrence was touted as a generational draft prospect. But he has just 12 passing touchdowns. That’s two more than mac Jones and Gardner Minshew and one less than Joshua Dobbs. Lawrence hasn’t been an issue, but he’s not been a difference maker either.

Part of that is due to Travis Etienne ranking tenth in rushing yards. Etienne has had his best season as a pro, but he’s not topped four or more yards per carry since October 8th. Elsewhere, Evan Engram hasn’t scored a touchdown yet and Calvin Ridley is as boom or bust as any offensive player in the NFL this year.

Defensively is where I’m most impressed by Jacksonville. The Jaguars are 12th in scoring defense and tied for the league lead in takeaways per game. Josh Allen is having a career year (12 sacks), and their third ranked rush defense is as suffocating as they come.

» READ MORE: Eagles are slight underdogs in divisional clash with Cowboys on Sunday night

On Cincinnati’s side, Jake Browning is a quarterback we don’t know much about. In his one game as a starter, he had a respectable box score with 73% completion on 8.7 yards per attempt, especially since he was facing a division rival in Pittsburgh.

But with his inexperience, the Bengals aren’t going to want him to have to throw 30 or more times. But with Joe Mixon putting up just 16 yards on eight carries last week and Jacksonville’s run defense being elite, they might not have a choice.

The Bengals’ offensive line hasn’t been good despite the addition of left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. Browning will have to get the ball out quick to the likes of Ja’Marr Chase and company. Chase has put up stellar numbers this year given the circumstances, but Tee Higgins has been incredibly disappointing in a contract year.

Defensively is where this team is unexpectedly bad. Their statistics might not appear too terrible, but they’ve been poor against the pass and run (27th and 31st, respectively), and haven’t generated much of a pass rush. If there’s a game for the Jaguars offense to come to life, it could be this one.

I initially talked myself into the over on this market before the game. But if Mixon can’t get going for Cincinnati, Browning will be put in an unfavorable spot with a struggling offensive line against the ferocious Jaguars’ pass rush.

The Bengals’ defense is the main concern for this pick, as a poor outing from them could lead to the Jaguars laying it on them. But I need to see Jacksonville do more and Lawrence be more of a difference maker to want to pick the over.

Ultimately, I can see this game finishing somewhere along the lines of 23-14 in favor of the Jaguars.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.