Bet on the Phillies to finish with the best record in the MLB by season’s end

With the MLB trade deadline set for next Tuesday, teams with playoff aspirations will undoubtedly look to add to their rosters for the final stretch.

The deadline also offers an opportunity to consider which team will finish with the best record in the league.

Entering Wednesday, Philadelphia had a 3.5-game lead with a 64-37 record, and FanDuel lists its odds for the best record at +110.

Can the Phillies continue their dominance, or will another team emerge to displace them?

Heading into Wednesday’s MLB action, three teams (Dodgers, Orioles and Guardians) trailed the Phillies by 3.5 games in the standings, while the Yankees were five games behind and the Brewers six games back.

When exploring which clubs can make up ground in the race for the best record, it’s best to limit our scope to teams within single digits. However, I am opting to omit the Twins (+8.5), Royals (+8.5), Braves (+9) and Red Sox (+9.5) – teams also within single digits but much closer to a 10-game deficit.

The reality is that it’s improbable for a team to make up a double-digit win deficit at this point in the season. Based on that theory, we should be relatively confident in limiting our list of contenders for the best record to the Phillies, Dodgers, Yankees, Orioles, Guardians and Brewers.

In addition to having the best record, Philadelphia has the best run differential at +110. At 60-43, the Yankees have the second-best run differential (+108), but they’re also on a 1-8 skid in one-run games.

The Yankees’ biggest issue is that they tend to be a front-running team. They score many of their runs in bunches but struggle in high-leverage spots. According to FanGraphs, New York’s lineup has a -1.73 Clutch rating, putting it 25th in the league.

Aside from Aaron Judge (.439) and Juan Soto (.432), the Yankees don’t have another regular starter with an on-base percentage of .330 or higher.

Even if the Yankees add a bat before the deadline, it’s difficult to expect a sudden increase in their Clutch rating.

» READ MORE: Bet on Phillies ace Aaron Nola’s strikeout prop in his start against the Twins on Wednesday

The Dodgers have the second-shortest odds (+240) to finish with the best record, and their +99 run differential is at least 11 runs higher than the Guardians and Orioles.

However, if there’s one weakness with this L.A. team, it’s relief pitching. The Dodgers are tied for the fifth-most blown saves (17) this season. While their bullpen has a 3.45 ERA, it also has a 4.13 FIP, which is a sign of possible regression.

Evan Phillips could have lost his job as the closer after retiring only one batter and allowing three runs in the Dodgers’ 9-6 victory over the Red Sox on Sunday.

Daniel Hudson will likely step into the closer role, but despite having a 1.52 ERA, the 37-year-old has already blown five of his 12 save opportunities. Moreover, his 3.11 FIP also makes him a strong candidate for regression.

Surprisingly, the consensus among baseball insiders is that the Dodgers would prefer to add a starting pitcher instead of trying to bolster the back end of their bullpen. That decision would suggest they might be looking ahead to the postseason to build a deep rotation rather than chasing the best record.

In comparison, Philadelphia’s bullpen has a 3.91 ERA and the second-best FIP (3.47). Yet the team is still prioritizing relief pitching at the trade deadline.

While I’d generally prefer to fade the favorites, the Phillies could become even more formidable as the season progresses, making them a worthy candidate to hold on to the best record in the majors.

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