Villanova is a worthy long shot to bet on ahead of Big East tournament

The Big East Tournament is consistently among the best conference tournaments.

The league is stacked with top-of-the-line talent. The games are played in Madison Square Garden, considered the Mecca of basketball, and the matches are almost always electric.

Let’s examine the gambling aspect of the tournament. Who’s the best bet in the Big East tournament? Could we get a bid stealer? Will UConn roll to the title?

UConn.

The Huskies are too dominant. They’re the only team in the nation that ranks in the top 10 nationally in both 2-point shooting (58%) and defense (44%). They don’t turn the ball over and crash the offensive boards hard. Their offense is too complex and elaborate for anyone to scheme against, especially on a short turnaround.

The two teams that could beat UConn are Seton Hall and Creighton.

Why? Because the Pirates and Bluejays were the only two teams that handed UConn a conference loss, and because the two’s defensive schemes match up well with the Huskies’ continuity motion offense – Shaheen Halloway’s switch-everything aggressive defense sticks with UConn’s off-ball shooters well, as does Greg McDermott’s drop-coverage scheme.

But the Huskies soundly dispatched both in the other head-to-head meeting this year, downing Seton Hall by 30 and Creighton by 14.

The Huskies have been playing their best ball all season, and it’s hard to make that same argument for anyone else.

That said, I can’t advocate for the Huskies to win the tournament at the current heavily juiced odds. There’s better value across the board.

Stay far away from Marquette.

The third-seeded Golden Eagles are exciting and enticing to wager on, but they have no shot without Tyler Kolek.

Kolek hasn’t played since Feb. 28 against Providence, and I’m hearing his oblique injury will likely keep him out for the tournament.

Shaka Smart runs one of the nation’s most innovative and explosive ball-screen offenses, leveraging Kolek’s elite vision, Oso Ighoadaro’s versatility, and Kam Jones’ sharpshooting ability in inside-out pick-and-roll sets.

But the Eagles can’t generate explosive ball-screen offense without their ball-screen initiator. They’re 1-2 since Kolek went down, and they scored a measly 21 points on 28 ball-screen sets against the Huskies, posting eight assists to nine turnovers.

The Eagles aren’t going anywhere in this tournament without him. And, for what it’s worth, that probably adds some value to Creighton’s tournament chances, although I’m probably staying away from the Bluejays at the current price.

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Villanova is worth a look at 20-to-1 or better.

The Wildcats are a high-variance squad that profiles well as a longshot in a tournament setting. Higher-variance teams give us a better chance of cashing an unlikelier outcome.

Specifically, the Wildcats boast a perimeter-oriented offense that shoots many 3s (16th nationally in 3-point rate) and a compact interior-based defense that allows many 3s (353rd in 3-point rate allowed).

So, if the ‘Cats get hot from 3 while the other team gets cold, they could shoot their way to four straight wins. That’s basically what they did between Feb. 11th and March 2nd, winning five of six games by canning over 40% of their 3s while holding opponents to 31% shooting from deep.

Also, while the Wildcats haven’t been generating efficient offense – they’ve been struggling to generate open shots – they have been playing more than solid defense. The Wildcats rank second in the conference in defensive efficiency, primarily by rebounding everything (second in defensive rebounding rate) and effectively closing out on shooters (third in Open 3 Rate allowed).

Additionally, the path is favorable.

The Wildcats drew the lifeless, hopeless DePaul Blue Demons in the first round, and they should have no issues after sweeping the season series by a combined score of 178-117.

With a predictable win, Villanova would play a Kolek-less Marquette in the quarterfinals, a huge advantage for the ‘Cats.

And if they win there, they’d likely draw Creighton in the semi-finals. While the Bluejays are the better team, Villanova played them to a draw during the regular-season series, winning by two on the road and losing by two at home.

Given the current odds, I’d take my chances with ‘Nova in that matchup. And anything can happen in the title game. We could even hedge the big ticket once we get there, guaranteeing a profit.

It’s tough to trust Kyle Neptune in a tournament setting, but the Wildcats have the talent, variance and path to make some noise this week in New York.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.