Big Ten futures: Back Penn State to eclipse their win total with new offensive coordinator

Big Ten football will have a different feel this season, with USC, UCLA, Washington and Oregon all joining the conference after the disbanding of the Pac-12.

A total of 18 teams now reside in the Big Ten, which creates quite a challenge for the schedule-makers. The league created a “flex protect” model in which schools play nine conference games while also protecting their annual rivalry matchups.

To create a level playing field, the Big Ten grouped teams based on their winning percentage over a predetermined time spanning multiple years. The 18 teams were split into two groups of nine, followed by three groups of six and six groups of three.

By dividing the schools into these specific clusters, the league can avoid the dilemma of teams facing an unbalanced number of programs from each grouping over a five-year period.

Since this will be the first year the conference will use the new scheduling format, it makes sense to exercise some restraint when assessing win totals.

When projecting win totals, a good place to start is to examine the returning production of each team.

College football analysts like Phil Steele, ESPN’s Bill Connelly and Action Network’s Collin Wilson track this information, which helps provide a baseline of what we can expect from these teams compared to the previous campaign.

Penn State will return 13 starters (six on offense, seven on defense) this season, ranking fourth in experience factor among Big Ten teams. Among them is quarterback Drew Allar, who returns after his first full season as a starter. The junior threw for 2,631 yards with 25 touchdowns and just two interceptions in 2023.

Allar will play under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, who held the same position at Kansas for three seasons. Kotelnicki can be a nightmare for opposing defenses because of his unpredictable play-calling. He’s run a spread offense and a pro-style, and he has even mixed in some triple-option.

His ultimate goal is to maximize his players’ potential by utilizing creative formations.

With lesser talent at Kansas, the Jayhawks offense created 43 plays of 20-plus yards through the air in 2023 on 283 passing attempts compared to 25 plays of 20-plus yards on 373 passing attempts under Penn State’s previous offensive coordinator, Mike Yurcich.

Although the Nittany Lions should be a better team this season, their most significant test will be a home game against Ohio State on Nov. 2. They will also face three former Pac-12 teams: UCLA, USC (away) and Washington.

Penn State’s win total was bet up from 9.5 to 10.5, and while I agree with the move, there could still be a few stumbling blocks along the way.

I project the Nittany Lions to finish with exactly 10 wins on the year, and DraftKings offers that exacta option with odds of +280.

» READ MORE: Fade Texas’ college football futures bets ahead of the 2024 season

The Terrapins will have a big hole to fill at quarterback following the graduation of Taulia Tagovailoa, who set career and single-season program records in passing yards, completions, completion percentages, touchdowns and 300-yard passing games in 2023.

Replacing Tagovailoa won’t be an easy task. While the Terrapins could fill the position with backups Billy Edwards Jr. and Cameron Edge, the decision to add North Carolina State transfer MJ Morris might suggest there isn’t a clear No. 1 heading into the season.

Moreover, Maryland ranks just 102nd in Connelly’s returning production (51%) metric and 123rd (36%) on offense.

With Edwards being a junior and Edge and Morris both sophomores, there’s not much experience in this Terrapins quarterback corps.

No other team in the Big Ten will face more uncertainty than Maryland this season. And if the Terrapins are in a coin-flip game, their lack of experience will likely come into play.

Given those circumstances, the Terrapins’ win total of under 6.5 games deserves strong consideration.

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