Canelo Alvarez should dominate as a massive favorite in Saturday night’s title bout in Mexico
Undisputed super middleweight champ expected to easily defend titles Saturday in his native Mexico
![Canelo Alvarez lands a body blow during his unanimous decision victory over former champion Gennadiy Golovkin in September. Alvarez will put his undisputed super middleweight titles on the line Saturday against John Ryder in Zapopan, Mexico. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)](https://www.inquirer.com/resizer/TfwXRMn_aDqyHFOATyNxtPwDLCI=/760x507/smart/filters:format(webp)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/pmn/CSLACUKHR5HQXIGMPBLXMPZ2M4.jpg)
There comes a moment in every prizefighter’s career when he meets an opponent he has no chance of conquering.
That opponent: Father Time.
At age 32 and with 62 professional fights under his belt, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez is nearing a battle with that undefeated foe.
Might Father Time present himself Saturday night in the form of John Ryder, a journeyman from London who will challenge Alvarez for his undisputed super middleweight championship in Alvarez’s home country of Mexico?
Not if you believe boxing oddsmakers, who installed the four-division world champion as a colossal favorite in the scheduled 12-round scrap.
Then again, upsets — even unthinkable ones — have long been a part of the fight game. Will Ryder (32-5, 18 KOs) pull one off Saturday by stunning Alvarez (58-2-2, 39 KOs) in the latter’s first homecoming bout in a dozen years?
Here’s a look at the betting odds and various wagering opportunities available for Canelo Alvarez vs. John Ryder, and our prediction for this 168-pound world title fight.
Odds updated as of 2 a.m. ET on May 5.
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Canelo Alvarez vs. John Ryder odds
Exactly one year ago, Alvarez was in Las Vegas for what has become his annual tradition: fighting on Cinco de Mayo weekend.
With throngs of Mexican fans cheering him on inside T-Mobile Arena, Alvarez walked into the ring as a -500 favorite to beat undefeated Russian Dmitrii Bivol.
And about an hour after the first jab was thrown, Alvarez walked out of the ring with his second career defeat — the first since a majority-decision loss to Floyd Mayweather Jr. in September 2013.
Bivol earned a lopsided unanimous decision after dominating the 12-round fight, which was contested at a 178-pound catchweight — just the second time Alvarez fought above the 168-pound super welterweight limit.
Rather than seek an immediate rematch with Bivol, Alvarez returned to super middleweight in September and successfully defended his 168-pound titles in a third fight with former champ Gennadiy Golovkin.
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But while he earned a unanimous decision, Alvarez didn’t flash the kind of skills and power that made him one of the most decorated boxers of the 21st century.
Curious fight fans learned the reason why the morning after the fight when Alvarez admitted he’d been dealing with a left wrist injury since a bout in November 2021.
Within weeks of going public with the injury, Alvarez finally had surgery, which required 12 weeks of recovery and rehab.
Come Saturday night, Alvarez finally will get a chance to test his repaired wrist in a live setting when he squares off against Ryder in Zapopan, Mexico.
That Alvarez chose the 34-year-old London native as his first post-surgery opponent makes sense.
Ryder has never won a world title in his 12 1/2-year pro career, and he’s just 9-3 in his last 12 fights. Two of those defeats came against Rocky Fielding and Callum Smith — two fighters that Alvarez beat easily.
Additionally, Ryder’s first pro loss was to Billy Joe Saunders in 2013. Eight years later, Saunders took a 30-0 record into the ring against Alvarez and was stopped after eight rounds.
All that explains why Ryder is a heavy underdog Saturday night. Other reasons: He possesses inferior power and boxing IQ; he has limited championship fight experience (just one bout, that being the loss to Smith in November 2019); and he’ll be fighting on his opponents’ home turf.
Canelo Alvarez vs. John Ryder: Fight prediction
FanDuel is among the sportsbooks offering multiple betting options for Alvarez vs. Ryder.
In addition to the traditional outright winner, fight fans can wager on props such as:
Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +350/No -500)
Will the fight end in a draw? (+2900)
How will the fight end? (Alvarez by KO/TKO is the favorite at -350, followed by Alvarez by points/decision at +430, Ryder by KO/TKO at +1600 and Ryder by points/decision at +1700.)
What will be the exact method of victory? (This involves picking both the winner and the manner in which the victory is achieved.)
FanDuel customers also can wager on the exact round the fight will end, if there will be a knockdown within the first six rounds (+185) and if two-plus knockdowns will be recorded in the bout (-155).
So how do we see the fight playing out? Pretty much like the rest of the boxing world.
Alvarez should dominate from the opening bell, and anything short of a stoppage victory would be surprising. But with the champ fighting in his homeland, he probably wants to put on a bit of a show for his fans.
So we’ll roll with the round grouping prop of Alvarez to finish off Ryder in Round 7, 8 or 9.
BetMGM’s price on this wager (+260) tops that of FanDuel (+200).
» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer
The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.