Fade Daniil Medvedev in semifinal matchup with Carlos Alcaraz at Wimbledon

The Wimbledon men’s singles resumes on Friday with two blockbuster semifinal matches.

Carlos Alcaraz continues his quest for back-to-back Wimbledon titles, taking on Daniil Medvedev. In the other semifinal, Novak Djokovic seeks to defeat Lorenzo Musetti and return to another Grand Slam final.

Here is a breakdown of the Alcarez-Medvedev match with a prediction and pick:

Although Medvedev knocked off No. 1-ranked Jannik Sinner to punch his ticket to the semifinals, it was evident during the match that the Italian wasn’t 100% healthy.

After losing the first set 7-6 (9-7) on a tiebreak, Medvedev broke the Italian in the third game of the second set.

At one point, Sinner seemed preoccupied with his ankle and even grimaced while trying to flex it. He then called for a trainer, but instead of examining his ankle, it appeared the issue was his breathing. The trainer took Sinner’s pulse, monitored his oxygen levels, and then the Italian left the court for 11 minutes.

When he returned, Medvedev would hold his serve to win the second set 6-4, followed by a 7-6 tiebreak win in the third. Sinner fought back to win the fourth set 6-2 but ultimately ran out of gas in the final set, losing 6-3.

A closer look at the IBM Watson stats reveals Sinner won more points (164-160), hit more winners (61-56) and committed fewer unforced errors (45-49).

Medvedev just seemed to win the points that mattered most, and he was more aggressive at the net, with 27 points won compared to 20 for Sinner.

Net points can often be the key to victory at Wimbledon. In 2023, players who attacked the net on 50-50 balls won the point 65% of the time compared to just 46% if they stayed on the baseline.

Alcaraz is a brilliant player who is skilled at attacking the net. In the last meeting against Medvedev at Indian Wells, he won 15% of his points at the net vs. 12% for Medvedev.

Playing on grass has also proven to be the best surface for the Spaniard, who already has two straight-set winners against Medvedev at Wimbledon.

While there’s no question Medvedev is in good form following a finals appearance in the 2024 Australian Open, Alcaraz should be able to advance to another Grand Slam final with reasonable ease.

Instead of backing Alcaraz to win the match at -350 on the moneyline, a better play would be to take the “No” option on Medvedev winning two sets at -163 odds.

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