Why PSG is worth the buy against Borussia Dortmund in Tuesday’s Champions League match

The 2023-24 Champions League is set to kick off on Tuesday and for the first time in quite a while things are relatively quiet at Paris Saint-Germain.

One of the richest and most powerful clubs in the world, PSG was hellbent on winning the Champions League and their plan was to do it by constructing a super team headlined by Kylian Mbappe, Lionel Messi and Neymar. Although Les Parisiens had plenty of domestic success of late, they never were able to breakthrough in Europe and now seem to be at a crossroads.

Mbappe is still at the club, but Messi, Neymar and plenty of other star players have moved on.

The player movement, PSG’s draw and the fact that the club has lost in the Round of 16 in five of the last seven Champions Leagues has cooled the hype around Paris for this year.

Is now the time to buy low?

We’re used to seeing PSG start the Champions League as one of the betting favorites. Over the years it was Manchester City, PSG and Bayern Munich jockeying at the top of the odds board before the group stage. But the market has soured on PSG, causing them to drift to +1600, making them the sixth-favorite in the 32-team competition.

And while there’s certainly some arguments to be made that PSG has fallen down a couple of rungs, this is still an elite team with plenty of game-breaking talent.

Additionally, there is a chance that losing Messi and Neymar will be a blessing in disguise because it will make the team sturdier defensive and should also simplify the task for manager Luis Enrique. Previous managers had trouble trying to jam every star into the starting XI for PSG, but it rarely paid off in the Champions League when you’re going up against the best in the world.

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Borussia Dortmund is also a team in transition after it sold its best player, Jude Bellingham, to Real Madrid in the offseason. With Bellingham, Dortmund went toe-to-toe with Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga last season, but things look a bit bleaker for Edin Terzic’s side at this moment.

The Black and Yellow have not lost in the league yet this season, but they drew against newly promoted Heidenheim and relegation-threatened Bochum. The defense has looked particularly shaky, which does not bode well against PSG.

This is a bit of a matchup nightmare for a Dortmund side that’s shown some defensive fallibities in the early going and is trying to find an identity after losing Bellingham and Raphael Guerreiro in the summer.

PSG should fancy this matchup at home and the -130 money line seems a bit cheap considering Dortmund’s defensive flaws.

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