Gus Edwards rushing yards, Lions total team points among best conference championship bets

Four teams will stake their claim for a Super Bowl berth on Sunday in the Conference Championship games.

Both top seeds advanced, with the Baltimore Ravens hosting the Kansas City Chiefs in the early game, followed by the San Francisco 49ers hosting the Detroit Lions.

In an early preview of the games, we’ll explore the weather reports and assess how these teams match up before offering a best bet for each game.

Perhaps there are three things certain in life: death, taxes and Patrick Mahomes in an AFC Championship game. The two-time MVP has reached the season’s penultimate game in each of his six years as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback.

However, Kansas City has never faced an opponent in the AFC Championship with a defense as potent as Baltimore’s. Over the past six AFC title games, the Chiefs didn’t face a team ranked higher than 16th in yards allowed per play.

Baltimore leads the league in this category, allowing 4.6 yards per play.

The Chiefs do have a generational talent at quarterback in Mahomes, who tends to perform above expectations in these underdog spots. According to our Action Labs database, Mahomes is 9-1-1 against the spread (ATS) as a ‘dog and a perfect 5-0 ATS when catching three or more points on the opening spread.

Given those prodigious numbers, you can forgive me for not wanting to step in front of that train. Instead, I’d look to get involved with this game by focusing on a Gus Edwards’ rushing prop (over 39.5 rushing yards), given the forecast for rain and wind gusts up to 12 mph.

In the divisional round, the Bills ran roughshod over the Chiefs with 182 yards on the ground. Kansas City ranks 27th against the run in FTN Fantasy’s DVOA metric.

Although Buffalo ultimately lost the game, it limited Kansas City’s time of possession to under 23 minutes. Look for the Ravens to follow a similar script to keep Mahomes watching from the sidelines as much as possible.

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Best bet: Gus Edwards over 39.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM)

While inclement weather likely affected the 49ers offense in the divisional round, they also had to play without one of their best players for much of the game.

Deebo Samuel played just nine snaps after injuring his left shoulder 10 minutes into the first quarter. This is the same shoulder on which he suffered a hairline fracture in Week 6 against the Browns.

Samuel didn’t play in the second half of the 49ers’ 19-17 loss to Cleveland and missed their next two games, resulting in a three-game losing streak.

While we wait for the official injury report, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport provided an update on Wednesday on Samuel’s status.

“He’s still in a lot of pain,” said Rapoport. “Still struggling to get full movement in his shoulder.”

While Samuel remains essential to what the 49ers do on offense, quarterback Brock Purdy should look a little better this time around since the forecast doesn’t project any rain.

Thus, after opening with a total of 50.5 points, we’ve seen the market bet this number up to 51.

However, Samuel’s uncertain status does give me reason to pause. As a result, I prefer to approach this game by targeting the Lions team total to go over 21.5 points (-106) at FanDuel.

One thing we should expect from Lions coach Dan Campbell is aggression. During the regular season, Detroit finished second in fourth-down attempts (40).

In the divisional round, Green Bay showed that teams can get after this 49ers defense, even with a first-year starting quarterback.

The Lions rank second in the red zone scoring percentage (66.2%), where their aggressiveness often pays dividends.

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