March Madness 2023 predictions: Nevada vs. Arizona State finish out First Four in Dayton

No matter what happens on the court Wednesday when Arizona State and Nevada hook up in a First Four game in Dayton, Ohio, it’s difficult to envision the winner making a deep NCAA Tournament run.

But if nothing else, both coaches — Nevada’s Steve Alford and Arizona State’s Bobby Hurley — can try to inspire their troops with personal stories about what it’s like to not only reach the Final Four but win it all.

That’s because Alford led Indiana to the 1987 national championship, while Hurley won back-to-back titles in 1991 and 1992 as Duke’s star point guard.

Of course, those three college hoops juggernauts were No. 1 NCAA Tournament seeds.

Nevada and Arizona State? They’re co-No. 11 seeds, two of the last four teams to receive at-large bids and playing for the opportunity to get to the main part of the bracket, where No. 6 seed TCU awaits the winner.

Who will that winner be? Our money is on the coach who can show his players not one but two championship rings.

Odds updated as of March 15 at 10:45 a.m. ET.

2-6. That’s Arizona State’s record in its last eight games against opponents firmly in this year’s NCAA Tournament. The opponents in those eight games were a trio of fellow Pac-12 members: UCLA (twice), Arizona (three times) and USC (three times).

So how did the Sun Devils (22-12, 15-19 ATS) sneak into the First Four? Two reasons: One of their recent quality victories was on the road against hated rival and South Region No. 2 seed Arizona.

Sure, that upset required a miracle buzzer-beating shot from beyond half court. But the shot counted, which means the win counted — and it was a win that clearly impressed the NCAA Tournament selection committee.

» READ MORE: Take a shot on fourth-seeded UConn to emerge from tough West region

Here’s what else swayed the committee: Two narrow neutral-site nonconference wins over NCAA Tournament teams VCU (63-59) and Creighton (73-71), plus an 87-62 rout of Michigan one day after edging VCU.

Those three victories are part of Arizona State’s 20-6 record against opponents not named UCLA, Arizona and USC. They’re also part of the Sun Devils’ 12-6 road/neutral-site record against all opponents since a 67-66 overtime loss at Texas Southern in the third game of the season.

What about Nevada? It played just seven games against NCAA Tournament opponents — two each against Mountain West Conference rivals San Diego State, Boise State and Utah State, plus a nonconference neutral-site tussle with Kansas State.

In those seven contests, the Wolf Pack (22-10, 19-11-1 ATS) went 3-0 SU and ATS at home, but 0-4 SU and ATS away from home.

The three road losses in conference were by margins of 9, 9 and 15 points. They’re also part of Nevada’s 2-7 mark the last nine times it has left Reno — a mark that easily could be 0-9 but for a pair of victories at Fresno State (60-56) and New Mexico (77-76) by a total of five points.

» READ MORE: SEC run made Alabama the clear team to beat in the NCAA Tournament’s South region

As for this direct matchup with Arizona State, we simply don’t trust the Wolf Pack to produce enough offense.

Nevada has scored more than 77 points in just two of 16 games since Jan. 7. During this 16-game stretch, it has tallied more than 66 points in regulation just seven times.

Meanwhile, the Sun Devils have the 12th-best field goal defense in the country, holding opponents to 39.4% shooting.

Then there’s this fun fact: Arizona State gave up 78, 72, 68, 79, 88, 77, 74 and 69 points in their eight battles with Arizona, UCLA and USC. That averages out to 75.6 points per outing. Against every other Pac-12 opponent, the Sun Devils surrendered an average of just 66.5 points — and that includes two overtime contests.

Finally, we try not to put too much credence into long-time historical trends in the ever-changing world of college basketball. But it’s impossible to ignore that Mountain West Conference teams have lost eight straight NCAA Tournament games, 12 of the last 14 and 17 of the last 22 dating to the 2014 tourney.

Add it all up and we’ll lay the short number with Arizona State and call for a 5-point Sun Devils win.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

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