Kansas State vs. Iowa State prediction: Back Cyclones as a home favorite

Kansas State is coming off one of its most impressive weeks in recent memory — so impressive that the Wildcats jumped eight spots in this week’s national rankings to No. 5.

It was the biggest jump of the week, and it’s K-State’s highest Top 25 position in more than a decade.

So it makes complete sense that the Wildcats will take the court on Tuesday as a decided … underdog? Against an opponent that has dropped two of its last three contests?

Such is life in the rough-and-tumble Big 12, which boasts six Top 25 teams, five of which reside among the top 12.

That includes No. 12 Iowa State, which hosts Kansas State in Tuesday’s only clash between ranked teams.

Why do oddsmakers strongly favor the Cyclones in this contest — and why is our Kansas State vs. Iowa State prediction in sync with that opinion? Because the Cyclones have been thoroughly dominant at home. And because the last time the Wildcats visited a Big 12 foe, they got steamrolled.

Odds updated as of 12:15 p.m. ET on Jan. 24.

78-67 rout of Texas as a 2.5-point home favorite.

84-50 thrashing of Texas Tech as a 4.5-point home favorite.

77-62 beatdown of Baylor as a 2-point home underdog.

70-65 victory over North Carolina as a 5.5-point home underdog.

On and on it goes for Iowa State, which is a perfect 11-for-11 in its building this season.

The Cyclones’ point spread mark in that building: 8-3. The only non-covers were against Milwaukee, North Dakota and Western Michigan — games in which Iowa State was laying 23.5, 24.5 and 23.5 points, respectively.

And even then, the Cyclones (14-4, 12-6 ATS) won all three by at least 15 points.

All those facts provide more than enough justification for backing Iowa State on Tuesday. But there are plenty of other reasons.

For starters, the Cyclones are two made 3-point baskets away from being on a nine-game winning streak and off to a 7-0 start in Big 12 play.

Since a 75-56 loss at instate rival Iowa on Dec. 8, Iowa State has fallen just twice in nine games. Those defeats: 62-60 at Kansas (as a 7.5-point underdog) on Jan. 14 and 61-59 at Oklahoma State on Saturday (as a 1-point pup).

Also, the Cyclones have been playing elite defense since the Iowa debacle. Not only have they held their last nine opponents to 67 points or less, but during this span they’ve surrendered a per-game average of just 58.4 points.

Average points allowed in Big 12 games: 61.3. Average points allowed at home this season: 51.5.

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As for K-State, its last two victories were extremely impressive — and extremely difficult.

Last Monday, the Wildcats (17-2, 13-6 ATS) needed overtime to knock off Kansas 83-82 (ending a seven-game slide against the Jayhawks).

Then in a classic letdown situation at home Saturday, K-State trailed mediocre Texas Tech by eight in the second half. The Wildcats finally kicked it into gear, closing on a game-ending 31-13 run to win going away 68-58 as a 3.5-point favorite.

Reminder: Iowa State beat Texas Tech at home by 34 points.

Yes, K-State sprung upsets in its first two Big 12 road games at Texas (116-103) and Baylor (97-95 in overtime). But the Wildcats’ last trip ended with an 82-68 loss at TCU.

In fact, both of K-State’s defeats this season were by double digits (the other being a 76-64 loss at Butler on Nov. 30).

If there is one concern about backing Iowa State on Tuesday, it revolves around the availability of guard Caleb Grill.

The Cyclones’ third-leading scorer (10.3 points per game) and second-leading rebounder (4.3 per contest) played just 17 minutes Saturday at Oklahoma State before leaving with back tightness. The senior is listed as questionable.

But even if Grill can’t go, we trust his teammates to pick up the offensive slack. As for the defensive end of the court, well, only two of 11 visitors to Hilton Coliseum have scored more than 60 points: Texas had 67 (and lost by 11), and Baylor had 62 (and lost by 15).

The Grill injury aside, all signs point to yet another double-digit home victory for Iowa State, which is seven spots behind K-State in the AP rankings but 14 spots ahead of the Wildcats in the respected KenPom rankings (No. 12 vs. No. 26).

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