Providence vs. UConn prediction: Grab the points with undervalued Friars

There has been a recurring theme throughout this Big East basketball season, and it involves Providence. Here’s the gist of it:

The Friars have been an ATM for bettors when cast as an underdog in Big East play, not only cashing in seven of eight games but posting five outright victories.

That includes a double-digit upset of UConn as a 5.5-point home pup back on Jan. 4.

Well, guess what? The Friars and Huskies are running it back in a rematch Wednesday, this time in UConn’s gym. And once again, Providence is catching a whole bunch of points.

And you better believe we’re taking ‘em.

Odds updated as of 11:15 a.m. ET on Feb. 22.

When these teams last met nearly two months ago in Rhode Island, they each shot 37% from the field; they each had four players score in double figures; they each had 37 rebounds; and they each had eight turnovers.

The difference in the Friars’ 73-61 victory? They were more productive and efficient from the 3-point line (8-for-18 vs. 5-for-22 for UConn), and they had a huge free-throw advantage (29-for-35 vs. 10-for-19 for UConn).

Those numbers figure to swing in the Huskies’ direction Wednesday (especially at the foul line). But enough to account for a 20-point difference in the final score from the first meeting (12-point Providence win) to this one (UConn laying 7.5 points)?

We don’t see it. And we say that knowing that UConn is the highest-ranked Big East team in KenPom’s ratings (No. 6) while Providence is the fifth Big East squad (No. 29).

In this instance, we’re trusting our eyeballs over the analytics. And our eyeballs tell us the 20th-ranked Friars and 18th-ranked Huskies are about as equal as their identical 20-7 records and suggest.

Offensively, the teams are mirror images of one another:

Granted, the Huskies have the defensive edge. But that has a lot to do with the tempo at which both teams play (the Friars like to speed it up; the Huskies are more comfortable in the half-court game).

What about the fact that UConn is 13-2 at home while Providence is 4-5 on the road (including 1-4 in its last five, all in Big East play)?

Well, for one thing, both of the Huskies’ home losses occurred in their last five games in Stoors. Also, we don’t need the Friars to win this game; we just need them to keep it close.

Which brings us back to Providence’s dominance as an underdog in conference action. The only Big East favorite to meet oddsmakers’ expectations against the Friars this season was Marquette — and the Golden Eagles barely got it done.

Back on Jan. 18, Marquette avenged a 103-98 double-overtime loss at Providence with an 83-75 home victory … as a 7.5-point favorite.

And get this: That non-cover at Marquette by a half-point is one of just four ATS setbacks for the Friars in their last 19 games.

Overall, Providence is 17-10 ATS this season. Throw in last year’s 17-11 ATS record, and the Friars are covering at a 61.8% clip over the past two campaigns.

Seems pretty clear that oddsmakers are consistently undervaluing this solid Providence squad.

Now, to be fair, UConn’s 16-10 ATS mark is nearly equal to that of the Friars. But the Huskies did all their point-spread damage at the front end of the season — they cashed in 11 of their first 12 games.

Since that 12th game — a 68-46 beatdown of Butler as a 7-point road favorite in its Big East opener — UConn is 5-10 ATS. That includes just three covers in eight home games.

Will the Huskies get revenge Wednesday night for their double-digit loss at Providence in early January? Probably. But we’re not passing up this many points with a Friars squad whose four Big East losses were by 6, 8, 2 and 5 points.

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