Making the case to bet on Penn State winning the National Championship

I couldn’t be higher on Penn State Nittany Lions college football futures in the upcoming season.

I truly think it’s Penn State’s year. They’re due to break out and breakthrough, and I’m betting on them in every which way.

Let’s discuss why I love the team and my two favorite Penn State futures for the upcoming season.

The Nittany Lions were a top-10 pass defense in college football last season. They finished sixth in Pass EPA per play allowed and 10th in Pass Success Rate allowed while forcing the most incompletions of any team.

PBU, as they call it.

While cornerback Joey Porter Jr. and safety Ji’Ayir Brown move on, Kalen King is prepared to step in as the next great Penn State CB1. He finished fifth among all qualified cornerbacks in Pro Football Focus’s Coverage grades and first in passes defended against Power Five opposition.

While King will get all the media attention, don’t overlook teammate Johnny Dixon, who posted 10 pass breakups last year.

Altogether, this should be the best secondary in FBS.

The secondary’s job should get easier. The linebacking core lost only one guy (Jonathan Sunderland), and they picked up a huge transfer on the defensive line in Maryland’s Demeioun “Chop” Robinson.

This is a top-five front seven nationally, and the Havoc they create means the defensive backs won’t be stuck on an island (even though they can handle it). They were the top overall team in Defensive Havoc last season and project to be similarly elite.

In full, eight starters return alongside defensive coordinator Manny Diaz, who should see a boost in production in his second year installing his scheme.

This might be the best defense in the nation, and it’s definitely the best defense in the Big Ten.

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The most essential part of any offense is the quarterback. But no quarterback can carry a team without a solid supporting staff, including a good coordinator, offensive line and skill weapons.

Penn State checks all three of those boxes.

Offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich returns for this third season. He’s shown us that he can maximize the production of his quarterback, bringing Sean Clifford to unforeseen heights (45 TDs, 15 INTs with Yurcich).

Another year in the Yurcich system should work wonders for all Penn State players involved.

The offensive line could’ve been a weakness, but that was before Olu Fashanu opted out of the draft and decided to come back for his third season.

Fashanu is a surefire NFL first-round draft pick, and one of the nation’s top left tackles. The quarterback’s blindside will be protected well.

The Penn State offensive line was 17th in Havoc Allowed last season. They bring back three starters, including Fashanu for a full season after he missed five games last year, and 66 career starts.

The Nicholas Singleton-Kaytron Allen duo is one of the best running back corps in the nation, perhaps only second to Michigan’s Blake Corum-Donovan Edwards.

Singleton is a stud. He recorded 4.6 yards after contact last year, the highest of any returning back in college football.

The wide receiving core loses their top two guys, but Kent State transfer Dante Cephus will pick up the slack. He posted 744 yards at 15.5 yards per reception in only nine games with the Golden Flashes, regularly beating double-teams over the top.

Overall, Penn State returned over 80% of its rushing and receiving yards last season. There are plenty of experienced skill position weapons on this roster.

We’ve established how loaded the Penn State roster is. Let’s talk about the elephant in the room.

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Yes, the fate of the Penn State Nittany Lions rides on the shoulders of Drew Allar.

I’m unsure how we can be confident about a guy with 60 career FBS pass attempts.

However, Allar provides the type of uncapped upside I look for when betting futures.

Allar is the highest-rated quarterback recruit in program history. He was the top quarterback and No. 3 overall recruit in the 2022 class, per 247Sports. He’s a 6-foot-5, 230-pound tank with a massive arm, a quick release and the ability to throw from all different arm angles at all different speeds.

In short, Allar is the prototypical modern quarterback prospect. He has NFL draft first-round potential.

He’s flashed that potential with Penn State already. He didn’t post a single interception or Turnover Worthy Play in 71 dropbacks last season, instead making insane plays like this one:

At the minimum, Allar should avoid mistakes. He only threw seven interceptions in 514 high-school throws.

At the maximum, Allar could be a Heisman contender. He has the defense and support staff to capitalize on his potential, and he’s already had a year to learn the Penn State system underneath Yurcich and Clifford.

The latter is what I’m betting on.

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If Allar hits, Penn State will be in the conversation for the best team in college football. They’re an unbelievably well-rounded roster.

They’re projected as double-digit favorites in eight games. They should win tilts with Illinois (protected five-point favorite) and Maryland (projected three-point favorite).

The other two games will decide the season.

The Nittany Lions figure to be 6-0 when they travel to Columbus to face Ohio State in Week 8.

The Buckeyes are in transition mode. They lost three offensive line starters to the draft (center, both tackles) and rank 97th in SP+ returning production. There’s still a quarterback battle.

Meanwhile, Penn State gets Michigan at home. That’s a huge swing game in the Big Ten East, and it’ll happen in University Park.

Let’s say Penn State splits those games (which is very reasonable) while rolling the rest of the conference behind an All-Big Ten season from Allar.

That puts the Nittany Lions in a similar spot to Ohio State last season – one of the best teams in college football that came up short against the Big Ten East victor.

A one-loss non-Big Ten Champion made the College Football Playoff last year. That’s a highly realistic scenario for Penn State football.

And once the Nittany Lions are in, anything can happen with their defense, offense and Allar.

So, here’s how I want you to attack Penn State.

Bet on Penn State to make the College Football Playoff at the best available number, currently +450 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Then, bet on Penn State to win the National Championship at the best available number, currently +2500 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

This is my favorite pre-season futures bet of the college football season. Penn State has the perfect high-variance upside (mostly around Allar) for a surprise National Championship run, and the market is undervaluing the Lions’ breakout potential.

The plays:

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