Penn State vs Minnesota preview: Nittany Lions to cover in second straight White Out game?

After taking an early 17-16 lead in the third quarter, Michigan blitzed Penn State with 25 unanswered points and two long runs in Penn State’s blowout loss to the Wolverines in the Big House, 41-17. The pre-game seven-point spread? Not even close.

The James Franklin-led program mustered up just 268 yards of offense and scored just 10 offensive points in the game, while potentially ending No. 16 Penn State’s chances at the Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff berth.

However, the Nittany Lions now turn their attention to a Minnesota Gophers program that has lost two straight games and dug itself a hole in a competitive Big Ten West division. Penn State opens as a four-point favorite at Caesars Sportsbook ahead of this “White Out” matchup.

The last time these two teams met in 2019, it was a memorable game where Minnesota, under P.J. Fleck, upset the high-powered Penn State attack, 31-26, as 6.5-point underdogs, according to OddsShark.

Although the Nittany Lions have a 7-6 record since 2007 in “White Out” games, Penn State has won four of seven such games under Franklin, including winning four of the last five, with the lone loss coming in 2018 by one-point against Ohio State.

In addition, four of the last five “White Out” games have resulted in Penn State covering the spread, although it failed to cover the 2019 game against Michigan as 7.5-point favorites.

Four seasons removed from their last meeting, Tanner Morgan and Sean Clifford will meet again as starting quarterbacks, though there’s an interesting wrinkle. Minnesota offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca left the Gophers after the 2019 season to join Penn State for a season in the same role, then returned to Minnesota at the end of last season.

In the 2019 game, the two combined for 679 passing yards and four passing touchdowns. But in their final seasons of eligibility in 2022, the quarterbacks have struggled to pass the ball efficiently. Morgan has thrown four interceptions over the past two games, while Clifford has completed just 43% of his passes over his past two games.

» READ MORE: Having received a dose of humble pie, here’s how Penn State plans to ‘get back to work’

The last two matchups in this series have gone down to the wire, with Minnesota capturing a five-point home win in 2019 while Penn State captured a three-point win at Beaver Stadium in 2016. However, Penn State has failed to cover in the last three matchups, including a push in a 2016 win over Minnesota.

The over has hit in the last two matchups, set at 49 in 2019, and 54.5 in 2016, but there’s reason to believe that won’t be the case in 2022. With the Nittany Lions scoring 17 points in each of the previous two games, while the Gophers scored 14 and 10 points respectively, this has all the makings of a slow-paced, ugly offensive output. Any bets on this game should go to the under 44.5-point total.

Penn State may win, but history says covering against this Minnesota program will be a tall task for Franklin and company.

Betting Line: Penn State -4; O/U: 44.5

MINN: +158

PSU: -190

*Penn State is 3-3 against the spread this season, while Minnesota is 4-2 ATS.

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