Back Texas A&M to cover the run line against Tennessee in winner-take-all Game 3 of College World Series

In college baseball, Tennessee and Texas A&M have been knocking on the door for several years. Both programs have made it to the College World Series on three occasions since 2017 but neither reached the title series until this past weekend.

The Volunteers and Aggies will take the field for a deciding Game 3 on Monday night in Omaha with an opportunity to bring their schools a coveted national championship for the first time.

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Both programs’ limited historical success on the diamond belies their overall quality this season. Since April 15, the schools have taken turns sitting atop the polls as the nation’s top team, according to every major poll in the country.

The Vols have done it with an intimidating lineup that drives in nine runs per game. Their lineup ranks second in both slugging and home runs per game. Multiple UT infielders are soon-to-be first-round draft choices, including first-team All-American Christian Moore (.378/33 HR/78 RBI) at second base and Clemson transfer Billy Amick (.307/23 HR/65 RBI) at third. As a whole, the Vols became the first team in NCAA history to feature five hitters with 20 or more home runs.

While the Big Orange lineup has a chance to be remembered as the greatest power-hitting unit of all time, their opponent is anything but a small-ball team. Texas A&M scores 8.5 per game (21st nationally) and is top 15 in slugging, OPS and home runs.

The Aggies’ offensive consistency is a big reason why they’re undefeated in the NCAA Tournament. Yes, their lineup took a big hit when they lost Braden Montgomery to a season-ending ankle injury earlier this month. He’s going to be a top-10 pick next month and has the kind of power from both sides of the plate to someday be an MLB All-Star.

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But despite his absence, A&M has continued to dominate. Their Aggies’ offensive production without Montgomery in the lineup has dipped by two runs per game, but their pitching staff has risen to the occasion.

Prior to this series with UT, they gave up just three runs in three games in Omaha. A big reason for that has been ace lefty Ryan Prager and an unflappable bullpen. Prager tossed four quality innings (2 ER) in A&M’s Game 1 victory but he’ll be watching on Monday night as the Aggies manager Jim Schlossnagle trots out a parade of relievers in an attempt to contain an explosive UT lineup.

As of now, lefty Justin Lamkin will get the start for A&M, facing off against the Vols’ Zander Sechrist. Lamkin has pitched more than three innings just twice since late March, but his last outing in Omaha might have been his best of the entire season. He tossed five scoreless innings against a fearsome Florida lineup, striking out nine in the process.

Fellow lefty Sechrist is also coming off an impressive performance in the College World Series, earning a win against a potent Florida State offense (6 ⅓ IP, 2 ER, 3 Ks).

There is a wide range of potential pitching outcomes, with either Lamkin or Sechrist pitching into the fifth or sixth inning or failing to make it out of the first. Both managers will be quick to tap into their bullpens to save the day.

As the old adage goes, you bet numbers, not teams.

Tennessee’s moneyline is sitting at -220, which is completely out of whack with this pitching matchup. It should be far closer to a pick ‘em, especially given the fact that A&M’s stopper (Josh Stewart) and closer (Evan Aschenbeck) are well-rested.

If the Aggies can manufacture some runs early and reach the seventh inning with a lead, they have the bullpen to slam the door on UT and win the national title.

But I’m interested in betting a number here and not a team, which is why I’m on the Texas A&M run line at even money.

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