Colombia beating Panama in regulation among best bets for Saturday’s Copa América quarterfinal matches

We’re one step closer to the semifinal round of the Copa América tournament, as two teams are still looking to punch their ticket.

Colombia will face Panama in the early window on Saturday, while Uruguay will take on Brazil in the late match. Los Cafeteros is high as a -300 favorite on the three-way money line, which will require some creativity on our part to reduce those odds.

The second match is a bit more, even with Brazil as a slight favorite (+155) over Uruguay (+180). And given the heightened stakes, we may need more than 90 minutes to determine a winner.

Panama picked up six points in Group C to reach the quarterfinal stage, defeating the United States 2-1 and Bolivia 3-1. However, Los Canaleros benefited from a one-man advantage against the U.S. after Tim Weah was sent off in the 18th minute for striking Roderick Miller in the head.

Panama then took care of business against a toothless Bolivian side that has allowed the most goals (10) in the tournament.

Colombia has been the better of the two teams compared to Panama, as evidenced by its +2.5 advantage in expected goals (xG).

Los Cafeteros also played Bolivia in a friendly before Copa America and won 3-0. And in Colombia’s last two meetings against Panama, it is 2-0 while outscoring Los Canaleros 7-0.

This is simply a case of too much quality on the Colombian side that ranks fourth in possession at the tournament (59.3%).

Look for Colombia to have the majority of possession and create more scoring chances. Tempers could also be at a boiling point on the pitch, with both teams looking to advance.

As a result, we should also expect a heightened level of fouls, with each team likely to pick up a card in the match.

Colombia is the better team in this fixture, but -300 is too expensive to back the favorites.

A better option would be to target a same-match parlay by pairing Colombia on the three-way moneyline to finish with more shots, with both teams also receiving a card.

This three-leg combination would reduce our odds from -300 to -125.

» READ MORE: Bet on a high-scoring game between England and Switzerland in Saturday’s Euro 2024 quarterfinal

Although Brazil finished second in Group D, it probably deserved a better fate after CONMEBOL admitted that the Selecao should’ve been granted a penalty in the 42nd minute of its final group match.

Colombian defender Daniel Munoz tripped Brazil’s Vinicius Junior. Yet, Venezuelan referee Jesus Valenzuela didn’t award a foul and wrongfully deemed that Munoz made contact with the ball and not the player.

Had Brazil been given the penalty, it might’ve finished ahead in the group and in line to face Panama instead of Uruguay.

Uruguay recently defeated Brazil 2-0 at home in a World Cup qualifier at its Estadio Centenario in the capital city of Montevideo.

However, it would be perilous to take this Brazilian team lightly. Brazil does have a 12-4-5 record in head-to-head meetings against Uruguay.

Brazil (5.8) ranks third in xG at Copa America, but with only five goals, it’s likely due for some positive regression. In comparison, Uruguay’s been fortunate to score nine goals with a 6.0 xG.

I’d expect a much closer contested matchup in this quarterfinal fixture between two evenly-matched teams.

I’ve got my sights set on a draw because I don’t consider these teams too far apart.

Moreover, if either team scores the go-ahead goal in the match, they’ll likely adopt a prevent-style defensive strategy to protect the lead.

This conservative approach only invites pressure, giving the losing team a greater chance to find an equalizer.

A draw result gives us odds of +210, which is well within my projection for the fixture.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.