Ranger Suárez has betting value to win National League Cy Young award

With Major League Baseball taking its annual midseason break, there’s no better time to take a moment and revisit the futures market for player awards.

While some markets, like the MVP race, are already well-established with heavy favorites, others don’t necessarily have a clear-cut projected winner based on the available odds.

In this midseason preview, we’ll examine the Cy Young awards market for both leagues and one long shot who still offers plenty of value.

Odds via DraftKings

Detroit’s Tarik Skubal is the current Cy Young favorite in the American League at -130, but when you look at the other potential candidates, his odds might still be too short.

At 10-3, Skubal has the highest win percentage (.769) among contenders. His 2.41 ERA is also the lowest. But if you prefer to use the advanced stat, Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP), Skubal ranks second in that category with a 2.57 mark.

With advanced metrics highlighting what pitchers can and cannot control, we’re seeing more voters place a greater emphasis on power numbers such as strikeouts. Skubal ranks third in both strikeouts per nine innings (10.86) and WAR (3.4).

Detroit has the ninth-softest remaining schedule, which should bode well for Skubal in his Cy Young candidacy.

Odds via FanDuel

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While the NL has more legitimate contenders for the Cy Young award than the AL, Atlanta’s Chris Sale is the deserving favorite at +125.

Sale leads the majors with a 13-3 (.812) mark, and he ranks first in the NL for WAR (3.7). He ranks second in ERA (2.70), and his FIP (2.23) is a league-best, which suggests further positive regression. He also ranks third in strikeouts per nine innings with 140.

Sale’s had quite the turnaround for a pitcher who entered the season with just 31 starts since 2020 because of injuries.

After finishing in the top five of the Cy Young from 2013 to 2018, this might be the year when Sale finally gets the award.

Like Sale, Suárez already has double-digit wins (10) while ranking fourth in ERA (2.76) and WAR (3.0). He’s tied for the fifth-shortest odds to win the NL Cy Young award at +3200.

When you compare Suárez’s numbers to those of other contenders outside of Sale, you can easily argue that the Phillies left-hander should have much shorter odds.

Suárez’s teammate Zack Wheeler has the second-shortest odds at +165 despite having the same record (10-4), a lower WAR (2.9) while allowing more home runs (0.85 vs. 0.71) and walks (2.70 vs. 2.05) per nine innings.

Pirates rookie phenom Paul Skenes has the third-shortest odds at +500 but only has 11 starts on the year after making his debut on May 11 – a month after the season started.

Although Skenes has been dominant, as evidenced by his 6-0 record, Pittsburgh might want to avoid the LSU product pitching too many innings in his first season. Moreover, if the Pirates fall out of the wild-card race, it’s even more likely they’ll shut down their prized rookie.

The pitcher with the fourth-shortest odds is the Dodgers’ Tyler Glasnow at +2800. However, Glasnow is 8-5 with a 3.47 ERA, and he’s allowed more walks (2.39) and home runs (0.99) per nine innings.

Lastly, San Francisco’s Logan Webb is tied with Suárez at +3200 despite having a worse record (7-7), ERA (3.47) and strikeouts per nine innings (7.75).

While the Cy Young award is clearly subjective, it’s not out of line to think Suárez might currently be the league’s second-best pitcher.

Moreover, if Sale has the unfortunate luck of suffering another injury, a ticket on Suárez at +3200 inherently becomes even more valuable.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.