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Bet on Villanova to cover large spread against DePaul in first round of Big East tournament

Why we're fading DePaul against the Wildcats in the Big East Tournament's first round.

Justin Moore #5 of the Villanova Wildcats dribbles during the first half against the DePaul Blue Demons at Finneran Pavilion on January 12, 2024 in Villanova, Pennsylvania.
Justin Moore #5 of the Villanova Wildcats dribbles during the first half against the DePaul Blue Demons at Finneran Pavilion on January 12, 2024 in Villanova, Pennsylvania.Read moreTim Nwachukwu / Getty Images
    by Tanner McGrath, Action Network
    Published 

Our beloved Villanova Wildcats take the court in the first round of the Big East Conference Tournament on Wednesday, earning the tournament’s sixth seed and being delighted to match up with 11th-seeded DePaul.

‘Nova swept the season series with DePaul by a combined score of 178-117.

I’m pretty sure the Wildcats will wipe the floor with the Blue Demons again on Wednesday.

DePaul vs Villanova Odds

Team
DePaul
Spread
+22 (-110)
Moneyline
+1450
Total
o136.5 (-110)
Team
Villanova
Spread
-22 (-110)
Moneyline
-4000
Total
u136.5 (-110)

(Odds via Caesars Sportsbook)

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DePaul vs Villanova Prediction

(9 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1)

The Blue Demons have four major issues when facing up with the Wildcats.

First, they can’t defend the perimeter, ranking 10th in the Big East in 3-point rate allowed and ninth in Open 3 Rate allowed. That’s brutal against Kyle Neptune’s five-out perimeter-oriented offense that leads the Big East in 3-point rate.

Second, they can’t stop post-up sets, a death sentence against Villanova’s big man and post-up merchant, Eric Dixon (1.02 post-up PPP, 82nd percentile).

Third, they are the worst perimeter ball-screen defense in the nation – literally, DePaul’s 1.01 PPP allowed is higher than any other D-I college basketball team. That’s a death sentence against Villanova, which heavily utilizes perimeter ball-screen sets to generate open jumpers.

» READ MORE: Villanova is a worthy long shot to bet on ahead of Big East tournament

Fourth, and finally, DePaul is a downhill ball-screen offense, running everything through Jalen Terry, Caleb Murphy, and Chico Carter. But the Wildcats are a compact, interior-based offense, leveraging their bevy of lengthy wings to deny dribble penetration into the paint and rim at all costs – they lead the Big East in paint points per game allowed (25).

So, predictably, these matchup issues played out in the regular season series.

Across both matchups:

  1. Villanova shot 20-for-42 (47%) from 3

  2. Villanova generated 33 points on 31 post-up sets (1.06 PPP)

  3. Villanova generated 1.20 pick-and-roll PPP to DePaul’s .87

  4. Villanova generated 80 paint points to DePaul’s 52

Additionally, DePaul hasn’t played much better following Tony Stubblefield’s mid-season dismissal, going winless SU and 6-8 ATS. After putting together the worst regular season in Big East history, I highly question the Demons’ motivation—the players just want the season to be over so they can hit the portal.

I expect DePaul’s motivation and schematic issues to play out in a blowout Villanova victory on Wednesday.

DePaul vs Villanova prediction: Pick

  1. Villanova -22 (via Caesars)

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