Bet the over on runs scored when the Phillies host the Diamondbacks in NLCS rematch

The Phillies enjoyed an off day Thursday for just the second time since their weekend series in London in early June. Despite a 4-6 record over their last 10 games, they still hold the best record in the National League that includes a 29-11 record at Citizens Bank Park.

On Friday night against Arizona, they will start right-hander Taijuan Walker, who has an ERA of 5.64 over the last six starts.

The Diamondbacks (37-38) enter the three-game series in the midst of a 7-3 run and are tied with the Padres for the NL’s final wildcard berth. Friday’s starter Jordan Montgomery has a 6.00 ERA through his first 57 innings and is one of the reasons the defending NL champs have gotten off to a slower-than-expected start.

Odds via FanDuel

Montgomery might not be as awful as his ERA suggests, but he does still look to be a considerably lesser pitcher this season after looking like a strong signing by Mike Hazen in the offseason. He has pitched to an ERA of 6.35 over the last 34 innings and has allowed an expected batting average of .289 in that span.

Montgomery owns an  expected ERA (xERA) of 5.00 this season and an expected FIP (xFIP) of 4.53. His Stuff+ rating is down to 93 compared to last season’s mark of 97 and his Location+ has also worsened to a mark of 98. Opponents are hitting .335 against Montgomery’s pitches inside the strike zone and his strikeout rate has dropped off considerably to 15.1%.

The Phillies provide a particularly tough matchup for Montgomery. They own a fifth best wRC+ of 126 and an OPS of .806 over the last 30 days. With Trea Turner back and in excellent form, J.T. Realmuto (knee surgery) should remain the only regular starter missing from Friday’s lineup.

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Walker has struggled to an xERA 5.84 and an xFIP of 4.68 in 49 innings of work. He showed positive signs last time out versus the Orioles and was better than his final stat line suggests. Still, his current arsenal has proven to be highly ineffective and rates out pretty badly.

Walker owns a Stuff+ of 88, which correlates with his 17.5% whiff rate and 18.9% strikeout rate. Opponents have hard-hit Walker 52% of the time this season, which is the fourth-highest mark among pitchers to throw 28 or more innings.

The Diamondbacks have started to live up to preseason expectations at the plate recently and have been effective against right-handed pitching in particular. They have hit to a wRC+ of 117 over the last 30 days against righties, with an OPS of .767. Alek Thomas (hamstring) is likely to be the only position player unavailable to Torey Lovullo in this matchup.

The forecast calls for a temperature of 95 degrees at first pitch, with 8-10 mph winds blowing out to centerfield.

This game features two of the worst regular starters in baseball, taking on two of the league’s hotter offenses in splits relative to this matchup.

In favorable conditions for run production a total of 9.5 still looks a touch low, and there looks to be value backing the over.

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