Back UNC to defeat Duke in college basketball’s greatest rivalry

No rivalry in college basketball or all of sports provides more thrilling games and passion than Duke vs North Carolina. Just eight miles separates two of college basketball’s most storied programs, and this marks the 261st meeting between them (UNC leads 143-117 all-time).

Both teams are top ten programs this year, with UNC being ranked No. 3 and Duke No. 7. With this game taking place on North Carolina’s home court, I’m backing their money line on FanDuel with odds of -200.

I’ll start with UNC, who started 9-0 in conference play and were on a ten game winning streak heading into their last game against Georgia Tech. This hot stretch of play warranted them being ranked No. 3, but a handful of those wins came by the skin of their teeth.

Some of their biggest strengths failed them against Georgia Tech, as they missed eight free throws and were blocked eight times while blocking no shots of their own. They shot just 36.4% from the field and 28.6% from downtown, where they’re just 35.2% on the year.

The big question is who will step up on the scoring front alongside ACC Player of the Year frontrunner R.J. Davis. The senior averages the ninth most points per game in the country and is shooting over 40% from deep.

Harrison Ingram and Armando Bacot must be the best versions of themselves offensively to support Davis, who Duke will be prioritizing first on the scouting report.

One last point on UNC is this is the best defensive team they’ve had in ages. During their nine game winning streak, they held all their opponents under 70. They can switch every position, play strong man to man, or excel with full court press at any given time.

Switching gears to Duke, they’re 7-2 in the conference and have a nearly identical record to UNC (16-4 vs 17-4 for UNC). They’ve won three straight and have lost just twice since December 2nd when they too lost to Georgia Tech by the slimmest of margins.

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Like UNC, Duke yields a more experienced team than usual this season. Kyle Filipowski, Jeremy Roach, Mark Mitchell, and Tyrese Proctor are all experienced players. But they still receive solid contributions from freshmen Jared McCain and Caleb Foster.

Duke is one of the best three point shooting teams in the country (15th), and rank 24th in overall field goal percentage. Their three point percentage defense is poor however, as it ranks 136th compared to North Carolina who are 12th.

While Duke is likely to hone in on Davis, how Filipowski matches up with Bacot will be critical. Bacot is better guarding the three than in past years, but Filipowski being an above average three point shooter could prove to be a mismatch.

Roach is the biggest x-factor of anyone in this game however, as he’s the most experienced of Duke’s starters and shoots a whopping 47.6% from deep. UNC freshman Elliot Cadeau won’t have an easy time guarding the experienced sand crafty senior.

Defense and an edge in rebounding are the two biggest reasons UNC is my pick. Ingram and Bacot will be tough to rebound against, as the two combine for 18.7 rebounds per game on their own.

Davis being the best player on the floor who has a clutch gene to hit the biggest of shots when needed is another reason I think they’ll eek this one out.

I’m never comfortable betting the spread with this rivalry due to how unpredictable this rivalry is. But with the on-court factors, being at home, and looking for a statement win coming off a loss and two losses to Duke last year, I’m predicting a UNC win.

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