Eagles player props: Back Saquon Barkley to hit the over on his touchdown prop for 2024 season

It didn’t take long for Saquon Barkley to find a new team after the Giants allowed the running back to test the free-agent waters. Just hours after the league permitted teams to negotiate with unrestricted free agents on March 11, Barkley posted two emojis of an eagle on X.

The former second-overall pick swapped one NFC East team for another after agreeing on a three-year deal worth $37.75 million with Philadelphia. He replaces D’Andre Swift, who signed a three-year, $25 million contract with the Bears.

Since Swift’s deal was more than $3 million per season less than Barkley’s, it’s surprising the Eagles were willing to break the bank for the former Giant, who has struggled with injuries in his first six NFL seasons. Barkley is also two years older than Swift.

Rushing props can always be tricky with running backs because of the position’s toll on their bodies. As a result, bettors should be extremely prudent when deciding which ones to play in this BFL futures market.

Anticipation is high for Barkley’s performance as a rusher in Philadelphia. A struggling offensive line often overshadowed his time with the Giants, but he could experience a completely different dynamic with the Eagles.

His best season came as a rookie when he played every game (16) and rushed for 1,307 yards while posting career bests in yards per carry (5.0) and touchdowns (11).

In his second year, he played three fewer games, finishing with 1,003 rushing yards, 4.6 yards per carry and six touchdowns.

Injuries limited Barkley to 15 games over the next two seasons when he combined to rush for 627 yards while averaging 3.46 per carry.

He played under a franchise tag in his fifth season and finished with 1,312 rushing yards, averaged 4.4 yards per carry and scored 10 touchdowns.

In his final season with the Giants, he played in 14 of the 17 regular-season games and fell just short of a 1,000-yard campaign (962) while averaging 3.9 rushing yards and scoring six touchdowns.

While Barkley has only had one other season that came close to replicating his rookie year, it’s difficult to evaluate his 2024 rushing props considering his injury history and the much-maligned offensive line.

Two sportsbooks, FanDuel and bet365, list his rushing yards prop at 1,025.5. However, at DraftKings, Barkley’s yardage prop is 100 yards more.

Even with Barkley playing behind a better offensive line in Philadelphia, I’d lean toward the under because the Eagles will still have multiple options for ball-carriers with quarterback Jalen Hurts and backup rushers Kenneth Gainwell and Will Shipley.

» READ MORE: NFC East win totals: Eagles win total offers little value, fading the Giants a smart play

The prop with the most value is for Barkley to score more than 6.5 rushing touchdowns.

He offers a more significant size advantage, given that he’s 6-feet tall and weighs 233 pounds, compared to Swift, who at 5-9 weighs 215 pounds.

All five of Swift’s rushing touchdowns last season were inside the red zone. He and Barkley each had 38 red zone carries, but Barkley still came away with four touchdowns despite being behind a worse offensive line,

Moreover, the Eagles’ schedule is the 10th-softest if we use their opponents’ average projected win total (8.32). They will play seven games against teams ranked 24th or worse in opponent rushing-touchdown rate.

Thus, if you’re somewhat cautious about Barkley staying healthy for the entire season, he might not exactly need the full 17-game slate to go over his rushing touchdown prop of 6.5.

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