Back England on the money line against the Netherlands in the Euro semifinal

England will try to get one step closer to winning a major tournament when it takes on the Netherlands in the semifinals of the 2024 European Championship on Wednesday night.

The Three Lions have struggled to create chances at this Euros as their 4.3 expected goals (xG) is almost half that of any of the three other teams to advance out of the quarterfinals.

And while manager Gareth Southgate has been somewhat hesitant to be proactive and mix things up, he’s been able to push all the right buttons when forced to make changes.

The English manager has a wealth of talent at his disposal, and even though his side has yet to silence critics, there’s something to be said about winning back-to-back games after rallying from 1-0 deficits.

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The Three Lions look like a team playing with nine lives after rescuing victory from the jaws of defeat following a Jude Bellingham goal in the 95th minute against Slovakia in the Round of 16.

Harry Kane then needed only one minute in the first period of extra time to put England up for good after scoring a header on an Ivan Toney assist that came off a free kick.

Then in the quarterfinals, England got an 80th-minute goal from Bukayo Saka just five minutes after going down 1-0. England would win the match with a 5-3 result in a penalty shootout.

In back-to-back matches, England has essentially cheated death while building its confidence and character each step along the way.

Although Southgate often prefers a 4-2-3-1 formation, some England fans are clamoring for him to play with two forwards up top.

Toney played only 42 minutes at the Euros, and he might be the biggest reason England is still in the tournament. The Brentford attacker also played a role in Bellingham’s goal against Slovakia after coming on the pitch in the 94th minute and attracting another defender to create space for Bellingham’s strike on target.

Southgate could also consider other options at fullback by bringing in a natural left-footer, Luke Shaw, to replace Kieran Trippier. At the same time, Cole Palmer’s dynamism in midfield could also be a boost.

While Southgate remains a very pragmatic manager, he can reach deep into his endless pool of talented players to effect the match when he needs it most.

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Like England, the Netherlands is also starving for another major tournament win. Despite producing some of the best footballers in history, the Dutch have been disappointing in these competitions with just one major tournament win (1988 Euros) in its history.

Since Bert van Marwijk’s appointment in 2008, Holland’s last nine managers have not lasted on the job for more than two years.

While Dutch legend Ronald Koeman is in his second stint at the helm of the Oranje, he hasn’t experienced the same success as a manager that he did as a player.

Koeman won domestic titles as a manager in Holland with Ajax and PSV, but when he took on bigger jobs in Spain with Barcelona and England with Southhampton and Everton, he failed to make it through two seasons.

In the final group game against Austria, Koeman left one of his best players, Xaxi Simons, on the bench before recognizing his error and bringing the PSG midfielder on in the 35th minute.

Although Koeman is probably likelier to tinker with his lineup than Southgate, he doesn’t have the same quality of players.

The Netherlands also hasn’t had to endure the same challenges and frustrations as England, which appears to be knocking on the door after losing to Italy in the finals of the 2020 Euros.

Between the manager and the players, this Netherlands team seems a bit untrustworthy. It probably needs another major tournament with this group of players before it can take that next step.

I’ve tried to fade England in back-to-back games, but perhaps the soccer gods are planning for more of an epic meltdown for England to take place in the final of a major competition.

Time and again, England’s depth has bailed out Southgate despite his unwillingness to take an unconventional approach in picking his starting 11. It will likely take an all-around quality team to defeat the Three Lions, and I just don’t see the Netherlands as the side to do so.

Considering that these two teams are relatively evenly matched, I wouldn’t be surprised if we need a penalty shootout to determine who advances to the finals.

That wouldn’t bode well for the Netherlands, which lost four consecutive shootouts (Euros 1992 vs. Denmark, Euros 1996 vs. France, 1998 World Cup vs. Brazil and Euros 2000 vs. Italy) before finally winning one against Sweden at the 2004 Euros.

In the 2022 World Cup quarterfinals, the Netherlands lost another penalty shootout to Argentina, which went on to win the title.

I expect England to do enough to advance, and its recent success in a penalty shootout against Switzerland should instill some confidence if it faces a similar scenario against the Dutch.

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