English Premier League: Regression candidates ahead of matchday seven

The seventh matchday of the English Premier League season is right around the corner and we’re starting to have clearer pictures of each team’s outlook on the season.

And, perhaps most importantly for soccer bettors, there are a few teams that have either overperformed or underperformed this season based on their underlying metrics. Today, I’m here to break down which teams enter this matchday candidates for positive regression, and those that may expect to take a step back based on their underlying data.

I like to use big scoring chances as the main indicator of whether teams should expect a reversal of fortunes in the coming weeks. Additionally, in evaluating this data, I give teams a 25% cushion on each side of its big chances differential to account for variance (effectively, it’s my belief teams will score or concede a big scoring chance 75% of the time at minimum).

Let’s dive into this week’s overall regression candidates for the English Premier League.

Manager Thomas Frank’s side is away to Southampton on Saturday and has ever-so-slightly underperformed on the offensive end. Through six fixtures, the Bees have generated 15 goals on 20 big scoring chances and have a -3 discrepancy between its goal differential (+6) and big scoring chances differential (+9). Based on that big scoring chances differential, the lowest expected big chances differential I have for Brentford is 7.65, giving bettors a +1.65 goal differential value.

Surprisingly, a season after excelling at home, a lot of Brentford’s bad luck has come away from the Brentford Community Stadium. In three road fixtures this season, it has a -1 goal differential against a +5 big scoring chances differential.

The Seagulls have gotten off to a roaring start while simultaneously underperforming on big scoring chances. Entering its Matchday Seven fixture — a visit to Bournemouth — manager Graham Potter’s side has a +6 goal differential against a +10 big scoring chances differential. Like Brentford, that underperformance has largely come in attack, with Brighton scoring 11 goals off of 17 big scoring chances, a 65% rate. Defensively, Brighton has actually over-performed, but at a very minuscule rate. All told, the Seagulls have conceded five goals on seven big scoring chances so far this season.

Entering this weekend’s fixture, the champions have a +14 goal differential on a +21 big scoring chances differential. By my estimates, the low end of its big chances differential comes in at 17.85, suggesting there’s a lot of room for City to improve. Defensively, City has performed relative to expectations (six goals against on seven big chances), but it’s in attack where the Cityzens have underperformed. To date, City has scored 20 goals on 28 big scoring chances, a 71% rate.

That said, a lot of City’s underperformance has actually come away from home. In three road matches against West Ham, Newcastle United and Aston Villa, City has a +2 goal differential on a +11 big chances differential.

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Defensively, United has performed appropriately. But offensively, it’s a whole different story.

Through six matches, the Red Devils have managed only eight tallies on 16 big scoring chances, which is by far the lowest big chances conversion rate among teams with two big chances per match, and second in the entire league behind Everton (40% big chances conversion rate). That said, a lot of that underperformance has come at home, where manager Erik ten Hag’s side has scored six goals off 11 big chances.

Entering its next fixture — a visit to Fulham — manager Thomas Tuchel’s side has conceded nine goals on 16 big scoring chances. All told, the Blues have a -1 goal differential in six fixtures against a -5 big scoring chances differential. Even with the most generous of estimates, I still have Chelsea’s low expected big chances differential at -4.25, suggesting a reversal of fortunes could be on the way.

That said, I don’t know if I’m ready to get behind Fulham this weekend, as a lot of Chelsea’s fortune has come against superior sides. Most of that differential can be attributed to Chelsea’s home performances against Tottenham, Leicester City and West Ham United (+2 goal differential, -3 big scoring chances differential).

Don’t get me wrong - Crystal Palace has played a very difficult schedule up until this point, but has simultaneously over-performed quite a bit.

Entering its fixture against Manchester United, manager Patrick Viera’s side has a -2 goal differential against a -7 big scoring chances differential. And, although Palace has underperformed on its big chances total (seven goals for on 12 big scoring chances), the defensive numbers are alarming. Through six matches, the Eagles have conceded only nine goals on 19 big scoring chances.

A lot of that underperformance can be attributed to road fixtures against Manchester City and Liverpool, but this is still a Palace team that allowed one goal on five big chances against Brentford at home.

Manager Jurgen Klopp’s attack has lived up to the hype — 15 goals off 16 big scoring chances — but has skated by defensively.

Through six matches, the Reds have conceded six goals on 11 big scoring chances, leading to a big scoring chances differential of +5. That comes against a goal differential of +9, making Liverpool a slight negative regression candidate entering its weekend fixture against Wolverhampton. That said, there’s not a whole lot of wiggle room here, as my high projection of Liverpool’s expected big chances differential is 5.75. So be careful in picking your fade targets of this EPL powerhouse.

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